Prospects Paradise

Gamecocks Take Home Final Title at Rosenblatt

2010-06-30T15:08:00.001-05:00

South Carolina star junior Whit Merrifield drove this Dan Klein fastball--the final pitch at

Rosenblatt Stadium--into right field to give the Gamecocks their first ever national title.

The 2010 College World Series had its ups (spectacular web gems, great pitching performances, and extra-inning nail-biters) and its downs (weather, long games, and disappointing crowds). But the CWS ended on a fitting note last night as South Carolina topped UCLA in a riveting, hard-fought final game. Whit Merrifield's one-out single in the 11th off Bruins closer Dan Klein brought home the winning run and was the first walk-off hit to win the CWS in a decade. The Gamecocks certainly earned the title, as they won six consecutive games in Omaha after losing their opener to Oklahoma. SC's Jackie Bradley Jr., a sophomore outfielder, received the tournament's Most Outstanding Player award, although RHP Blake Cooper (a senior who did his best Jonah Nickerson impression and threw two straight games on three days' rest) also had a case.

Even if he thought teammate Blake Cooper was more deserving, Jackie

Bradley Jr. wasn't going to complain about more Erin Andrews time.

South Carolina is traditionally known as a team of mashers, but this club was built primarily on its pitching and defense. The 'Cocks didn't have a Justin Smoak or Phil Disher to rely on, but they had a strong 1-2 punch in the rotation and one of the best bullpens in the country. South Carolina and Florida were the class of the SEC pretty much all season long. While the young Gators stumbled in Omaha--as the Gamecocks did in the (decidedly less important) conference tournament--Carolina was able to pick up the second consecutive NCAA championship for the SEC. I still believe Texas, Virginia, etc. were even better, but kudos to the Gamecocks for an amazing postseason run and for beating a terrific UCLA team. I'm excited to see what JBJ, closer Matt Price, 1B Christian Walker and Co. have in store for an encore.

A couple of final screenshots and thoughts from the last College World Series at Rosenblatt Stadium:

Yes, even the big guys like Gerrit Cole and Matt Purke

take it hard when their team is eliminated.

Trevor Bauer is the most exciting player to watch in the nation. Knowing he enrolled at UCLA a semester early, is a long-toss freak, pitches like Tim Lincecum, and is one of the most dominant pitchers in the country, I've liked Bauer for a while. I didn't realize the extent of his quirkiness, however, until watching him in person and on TV in the CWS. Bauer has an insane conditioning and throwing routine. It was a treat to watch him do his crazy gyrations and exercises, then go out and put on a clinic on the mound. If UCLA got to Game 3 and won, Bauer likely would have gotten the CWS MOP, as his first two starts were masterful. The nation's leader in strikeouts, Bauer throws in the low-90s, has an extremely deep repertoire of offspeed pitches, and could be a 1st-round pick next year. Do yourself a favor: set aside an hour and search 'Trevor Bauer' on Google and YouTube.

Trevor Bauer mockingly gave the TCU symbol after he

decimated the Horned Frogs' lineup with 13 Ks in 8 IP.

Trevor Bauer didn't seem to be fazed by the loss. He even

asked to touch SC's trophy during postgame handshakes.

It was great to have some fresh blood at the CWS, with TCU a first-time participant and South Carolina a first-time winner.

ESPN still has work to do with its broadcasts. It is blatantly obvious that Mike Patrick, Orel Hershiser, et al. don't follow the college game until they cover the postseason. They are not familiar with the teams or players. On the other hand, Baseball America continues to do a fantastic job of covering the event and college baseball all season long.

The lights at Rosenblatt Stadium are finally off for good.

With summer leagues in full swing, the signing deadline for draftees on August 16, and next season less than 8 months away, it's time to look forward to 2011. I already can't wait.

It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year

2010-06-15T23:26:00.005-05:00

It has been a woefully long time since I last posted, but I have caught my breath and am back to provide sweet baseball content all summer.

With all due respect to Andy Williams, the best time of the year occurs not in December, but June. School is out, the sun is shining, the MLB Draft was last week, and (most importantly) the NCAA playoffs are in full swing. Over the weekend, eight teams clinched a berth to the College World Series, which kicks off Saturday.

Bracket 1

TCU

Florida State

UCLA

Florida

Bracket 2

South Carolina

Oklahoma

Arizona State

Clemson

There has been little consensus this season in college baseball. Virginia and Texas were seen as two possible favorites, but both of those heavyweights were toppled in the Super Regional round. Most were also surprised to see Coastal Carolina, Louisville, and Cal State Fullerton go down. Each of the teams remaining has its weaknesses, and we could be in for a wild tournament. This is also the last year for Rosenblatt Stadium, the host of the CWS since 1950.

It is tough to know what to expect in the College World Series. Nearly anything can happen in the postseason, especially in the volatile hands of metal bats and the environment of the college game. Nonetheless, I will offer some fearless predictions:

Final

Arizona State over Florida in 3 games

The Sun Devils (52-8) have had an incredible season, but they are not perfect. Starting pitchers Seth Blair, Merrill Kelly, and Jake Borup typically keep their team in the game, but none posted a FIP below 4.40 this season. I could certainly see a situation in which opposing clubs batter the ASU starters in Omaha. The Devils also have only one player with more than 10 home runs this season. With that said, ASU is ridiculously deep and talented and I loved what I saw from them in March. The Sun Devils hit .338/.436/.539 with 314 walks as a team. From Riccio Torrez to Johnny Ruettiger to Kole Calhoun to Zach Wilson to Drew Maggi to Zack MacPhee (all of whom wield a .400+ wOBA), their offense has droves of patient hitters with dangerous sticks. The Sun Devils are relentless and rarely have problems putting runs up. They also have four shut-down relievers (Jordan Swagerty, Mitchell Lambson, Jake Barrett, and Brady Rodgers) and their defensive unit is very athletic and versatile.

If ASU's starting pitchers falter, they could be knocked out quickly. With their talented roster and experience from last season's Omaha trip, however, I'll give the Devils the slight edge in this field. Florida (47-15) has a spectacular team and lost just one (!) weekend series all season. Preston Tucker, Matt den Dekker, Austin Maddox, et al. are dynamite position players, while studs such as Alex Panteliodis, Hudson Randall, and Kevin Chapman give UF a formidable arms corps. For now, I'll wait until 2011 to label them as my championship pick.

Darkhorse

TCU

The Horned Frogs (51-12) have played incredible baseball all season long. Series wins at Cal State Fullerton and Texas highlight their resume. TCU is also one of the more complete teams in the field of eight, with talented hitters, pitchers, defenders, and bullpen options. Although they are making their first trek to the CWS, the Horned Frogs have absolutely no underdog status. Don't be shocked if Freshman of the Year candidate Matt Purke has a coming-out party in Omaha (see below), the crowd rallies behind the Omaha newcomers, and TCU's wealth of talented players (including Kyle Winkler, Bryan Holaday, Matt Curry, Jason Coats, and Taylor Featherston) carries the Frogs deep into the tourney.

Breakout Stars

Omaha is a perfect time for young players to have a coming-out party on the national stage. Hardcore college baseball fans may already know them as household names, but there will inevitably be some players (think UVa.'s Keith Werman last year and Fresno State's Danny Muno in 2008) who star at the CWS and raise their fame. After all, there will be many more mainstream fans watching on ESPN in June than there are devouring box scores in February. Here are a few freshman who could potentially burst onto the national scene with good showings at The Blatt.

Matt Purke, TCU

Not too often does a 1st-round pick turn down pro ball and make his way to college. Almost never, in fact. Purke did just that, though, and he hasn't disappointed in his initial campaign in Fort Worth. The electric 6'4 lefty posted a 2.19 FIP while punching out 133 and walking 28 in 103 IP, positioning himself to be a top-5 pick for next year. I could easily see Purke shutting down FSU in Game 1. Though he is one of the most dominant hurlers in the nation, he looks goofy on the mound, rocking goggles and a crooked, flat-brimmed hat. That could make Purke a fan favorite.

Deven Marrero, ASU

An unsigned 2009 17th-rounder out of American Heritage High in Florida, Marrero showed up in Tempe with high expectations. The exciting young shortstop has exceeded them, having won a starting job for the Sun Devils. Marrero is hitting .392/.439/.628 on the year.

Nolan Fontana, Florida

Fontana is about as polished as they come. The frosh shortstop has committed just three errors all season, and he's maintained a 49-28 BB-K ratio as the Gators' leadoff batter. His steady play should get noticed in Omaha.

Jackie Bradley, Jr., South Carolina

Okay, Bradley isn't a freshman. Still, the Gamecocks did not reach the CWS last year, and most fans do not know the sophomore star. Bradley is hitting .371/.477/.587 with a 38-31 BB-K ratio and 11 home runs. The 5'10 outfielder could make his name known with a big tournament.

Jeff Gelalich and Beau Amaral, UCLA

UCLA has a pair of dynamic starting freshman outfielders in Gelalich and Amaral. Both have speed and promising lefty swings. They are my picks to click, and will play important roles for the Bruins in Omaha.

Site Update

2010-04-23T11:03:00.001-05:00

Prospects Paradise has gone silent recently, as schoolwork has consumed much of my free time. This trend will likely continue for a while, but I hope to return some time soon with more college, prospects, and draft info. You can always head over to Twitter for tidbits of goodness.

Indians at Padres, March 14

2010-04-06T17:18:00.002-05:00

I unfortunately missed out on Buster Posey and the Giants during my trip to Arizona, but this Sunday afternoon Indians/Padres matchup (here is the box score) gave me a chance to still see a top-10 prospect in baseball last weekend. That player would be Indians catcher Carlos Santana, who hit .290/.413/.530 with a .418 wOBA last year in Double-A. The squat 24-year-old should offer patience and pop from both sides of the plate, and, if all goes well, will help Tribe fans forget about Victor Martinez. He's close to big-league ready, and it was a treat to watch him play. Triple-A C Wyatt Toregas, a fringe prospect, started over Santana, but the latter got some playing time in the second half of the game. Santana singled and grounded out in two trips to the plate.

Another promising Cleveland prospect, OF/DH Nick Weglarz, displayed his talents in AZ. The 6-3, 240-pound Weglarz offers little to no defensive value, but he'll be a useful, three-true-outcomes-type hitter. The Canadian hulk draws walks at a dizzying rate, and possesses plus power as well.

Cleveland's top pitching prospect, righty Hector Rondon, threw 1.2 IP in this game. Rondon's slider and changeup need fine-tuning, but his fastball command makes him a nice mid-rotation starter prospect. The Venezuela native posted a ~3.00 FIP and a superb 4.8 BB% at the top two rungs of the minors last season. Rondon fared well and lived up to his scouting reports in this game, repeatedly pounding the zone with his low-90s fastball.

Lastly for the Indians, their 2009 1st-round pick (RHP Alex White) closed out the 5th inning. White, a College World Series veteran in his North Carolina days, will start the season in the High A Kinston rotation.

There wasn't much to report from the San Diego side. James Darnell and Drew Cumberland were inserted late in the contest, and I didn't get many looks at them.

James Darnell at third with Lance Zawadzki to his left

Leake to Majors

2010-04-03T20:11:00.000-05:00

The Reds made a surprise announcement this week, handing the #5 spot in their starting pitching rotation to 2009 1st-round draft pick Mike Leake. Leake will become the 21st player in history to begin his professional career in the MLB and skip the minors completely. Leake, 22, dominated in college and in the Arizona Fall League last season, but I was still shocked at the news.

If there is someone up to the task, however, it is Leake. Though he is an unimposing 5-11 and sits around 89-91 mph with his fastball, Leake is polished beyond his years. The Arizona State product has strong command of four pitches and changes speeds deftly to keep hitters off balance. Cincinnati manager Dusty Baker is notorious for shredding pitchers' arms, which is concerning, but on the bright side Leake threw 160+ innings last season and has the clean, athletic delivery to avoid arm problems. It would be foolish to have extremely high expectations for a pitcher one year removed from NCAA competition and playing his home games in a homer-happy ballpark, but I think Leake will be able to hold his own (sub-5.00 xFIP?). The Reds believe they will contend, and time will tell if Leake is a better 2010 option than fellow 5th-starter candidates such as Travis Wood and Micah Owings. Long-term, Leake will be a strong, dependable mid-rotation starter.

Mike Leake

*Thanks to Adam Foster for this photo. Check out ProjectProspect.com.

Videos from Arizona State/Auburn, Part 1

2010-04-03T19:56:00.002-05:00

Sophomore Zach Wilson, one of ASU's top offensive threats

Star sophomore Zack MacPhee

Ballyhooed prospect Hunter Morris

Matt Newman

Riccio Torrez

Brian Fletcher showed off his big-time bat speed and an uppercut, homer-oriented swing that led to whiff after whiff.

Videos from Arizona State/Auburn, Part 2

2010-04-03T19:54:00.002-05:00

Junior Seth Blair

Xorge Carrillo showed patience and a plan at the plate in this game.

Junior Kevin Patterson displayed his power and propensity to whiff.

Kole Calhoun

Merrill Kelly

Cole Nelson

Videos from Arizona State/Auburn, Part 3

2010-04-03T19:49:00.000-05:00

Sophomore Johnny Ruettiger, the nephew of "Rudy."

Touted freshman Jake Barrett

Sophomore closer Jordan Swagerty

Drew Maggi

Mitchell Lambson (Yep.)

Auburn at Arizona State, March 12-13

2010-03-31T18:50:00.004-05:00

I am extremely late in posting this, but there's this thing called school... Anyway, I went to Packard Stadium a few weekends ago for two Arizona State/Auburn games. The Sun Devils, one of two remaining unbeaten teams in the country, displayed their deep, dangerous lineup. The Devils took Friday night's game, 9-8, on the strength of a six-run 5th inning.

The Sun Devils then routed Auburn on Saturday night, 16-7. They could certainly use injured ace Josh Spence, but the Devs are undoubtedly for real. ASU doesn't have any true boppers, but their lineup is full of patient, line-drive hitters. Packard Stadium is also a legit venue, so this pair of games was spectacular. It doesn't get any better than college baseball.

Barry Bonds, Reggie Jackson, Dustin Pedroia, Andre Ethier, Brett Wallace, Mike Leake...the list of former ASU stars goes on and on.

John Hancocks from ASU ace Josh Spence and stud freshman Andrew Aplin

I also have videos galore from the series, which I will share in an upcoming post.

College Top 25 Rankings, 3/22

2010-03-22T23:57:00.000-05:00

Baseball America Poll

1. Virginia

2. Arizona State

3. Texas

4. Georgia Tech

5. Louisville

6. Florida State

7. LSU

8. UCLA

9. Florida

10. TCU

11. Coastal Carolina

12. Clemson

13. UC Irvine

14. Arkansas

15. Ole Miss

16. Alabama

17. Miami

18. Cal State Fullerton

19. Oregon State

20. Oklahoma

21. Stanford

22. South Carolina

23. Texas A&M

24. East Carolina

25. Rice

Next Tier

Southeastern Louisiana

Western Kentucky

Arizona

North Carolina

Oregon

Nice Work

UConn is emerging as a big-time sleeper team. The Huskies kept rolling with four wins this week and look very much like a regional contender. Connecticut has a bevy of weapons in OF George Springer, 3B Mike Olt, SS Nick Ahmed, 2B Pierre LaPage, and LHP Elliot Glynn. The Big East is way up this season and will be fun to watch. UConn travels to Louisville for the upcoming weekend.

Arizona wasn't on any radar screens entering the season, but the Wildcats sure are now after a 16-4 start. The Wildcats are one of the youngest teams in the nation, starting a lineup almost completely composed of underclassmen. Sophomores Jett Bandy (.506/.570/.790!) and Steve Selsky (.438/.500/.584), and freshman Robert Refsnyder (.458/.529/.569) and Joey Rickard (.386/.449/.580) are red-hot offensively. Imagine if the Wildcats had retained drafted recruits Tommy Joseph, Randal Grichuk, Ian Krol, Trent Stevenson, and Matt Helm (as well transfer Donn Roach, who has a 2.93 ERA at CC of Southern Nevada).

Auburn blasted Georgia this weekend and notched a conference sweep. The Bulldogs are scuffling mightily, but the Tigers (who are hitting .353/.432/.574 as a team) have some potential. High-profile junior first baseman Hunter Morris went 5-for-6 with a pair of home runs on Sunday and is now hitting .425/.462/.793 with 8 homers on the season. OF Brian Fletcher is at .412/.481/.809. (Looking towards their professional futures, however, Fletcher's 7-17 and Morris's 5-18 BB-K ratios aren't encouraging.)

Texas A&M's Michael Wacha is proving to be a dominating freshman. The 6-6 right-hander has a 1.38 ERA and a 41-4 K-BB ratio. The Aggies as a whole have been a very nice surprise this season and moved into the rankings this week.

Texas's offense is not clicking on fully cylinders, but the Longhorns have received strong contributions from a pair of ballyhooed freshmen. OF Cohl Walla, who was recently inserted into the starting lineup, is hitting .351/.359/.432. C/1B/OF Jonathan Walsh is hitting .435/.481/.739 in limited action.

Needs Work

Cal Poly has stumbled to a 7-11 start, including a series loss versus Cal this weekend. The Mustangs were on the cusp of my preseason rankings, but have not found any consistency on the mound or at the dish. Freshman OF Mitch Haniger has been a bright spot, but bats such as Matt Jensen and J.J. Thompson have some heating up to do. Losing projected ace righty Steven Fischback for another season was also a big blow for CP, and hurlers Matt Leonard and D.J. Mauldin haven't been able to carry the load.

North Carolina lost two of three to ACC foe Florida State over the weekend, UNC's second consecutive series loss. The Tar Heels uncharacteristically struggled on the mound, receiving underwhelming starting performances from Matt Harvey, Colin Bates, and Patrick Johnson. While competitive, they simply aren't as talented as their last 4 College World Series teams.

Reds at Cubs, March 13

2010-03-20T02:34:00.005-05:00

I went to see the Reds/Cubs game last Saturday at HoHoKam Park in Mesa. (Here is the box score from the game, which the Cubs won handily.) This NL Central contest was a real delight to take in, due in no small part to the numerous prospects and young big leaguers who played.

I was pumped to see Starlin Castro and Yonder Alonso in the starting lineups

I arrived nearly 3 hours before game time and had ample time to kick back and watch batting and infield practice

Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro was my primary focus. The Dominican Republic native has been anointed as the team's top prospect, and some want the 19-year-old to begin the season in the majors. (I would give Castro at least a few more months of minor league seasoning. He only has 120 plate appearances above Single A and can only offer the Cubs an empty batting average at this point. Castro makes contact with ease and his wOBA last season hovered around .340, but he has yet to post a .400 SLG or a walk rate above 6.0% in full-season ball. Chicago should keep the talented youngster in the minors rather than unnecessarily rushing him, but I digress.) Castro has a knack for contact, and while he hasn't developed much power yet, he had a solid showing in BP.

Castro grounded out thrice in actual game action:

Castro's defense is generally praised, but the 6-0, 190-pounder is not an above-average runner and whether he possesses the range necessary for shortstop remains to be seen. Here he is taking grounders before the game:

Starlin Castro

Starlin Castro (alongside Aramis Ramirez)

Hak-Ju Lee, Chicago's other premier middle infield prospect, also received a couple at-bats in the game. Lee hit .330/.399/.420 with 25 SB in the Short-Season Northwest League in 2009.

I snapped lots of photos of Cincinnati players, but unfortunately didn't see Aroldis Chapman.

OF Drew Stubbs

OF Chris Heisey

3B Juan Francisco and OF Wladimir Balentien

Jim Adduci, an unheralded 24-year-old outfielder with limited power but who put up a .362 wOBA in Double-A last season, started in right field for the Cubs. Spring results are meaningless, but Adduci put good swings on a few pitches.

Juan Francisco provided the fireworks for the Reds. I still doubt a player with a career MiLB 3.8 BB% and .311 OBP will be an above-average big league bat, but Francisco's power is simply prodigious and he put it on display with a pair of homers against the Cubs:

Contrary to what the pre-game lineup stated, Logan Watkins did not get the start for the Cubs. Instead, Darwin Barney got the nod at second base. Barney looked good with a diving stop and a couple of line drives, but I was hoping to get the chance to see Watkins. Both are promising middle infield prospects with steady defensive skills, but ultimately I wonder if their bats will be loud enough for them to surface as big league regulars. Watkins (.065) and Barney (.076) had meager showings in the IsoP department in 2009. The former entered Saturday's game for one AB and went down looking:

Logan Watkins at second base

Hard-hitting 1B Yonder Alonso, Cincinnati's #1 prospect:

Here are a couple more vids and pics from the game.

Todd Frazier

Drew Stubbs

Yonder Alonso

Arizona High School Powerhouses

2010-03-18T01:33:00.006-05:00

Arizona's hotbed of baseball talent is not limited to college and professional ball; the high school ranks are stocked as well. Schools like Scottsdale's Horizon High (Angels 3B Brandon Wood, Pirates RHP prospect Tim Alderson, Giants C prospect Tommy Joseph) and Tucson area's Canyon del Oro (Rangers 2B Ian Kinsler, Astros OF prospect T.J. Steele, Padres OF Scott Hairston, Royals OF Brian Anderson, Yankees 1B Shelley Duncan) churn out quality players year after year. I visited two such high schools on my trip: Brophy Prep in Phoenix and Chaparral High in Scottsdale.

Brophy is a private, all-male Jesuit school with an outstanding baseball program. Along with big leaguers Paul LoDuca and Justin Speier, many Arizona State players attended the school. Current ASU stars from Brophy include Drew Maggi, Matt Newman, Riccio Torrez, and Raoul Torrez. University of San Diego stalwarts Sean Nicol and Tony Strazzara, and Pirates 2009 7th-round pick Trent Stevenson, are all former Broncos.

Drew Maggi is one of many Brophy alumni who went on to play at Arizona State

The diamond at Brophy Prep

ASU's top freshman, RHP Jake Barrett, is a Desert Ridge grad

Jake Barrett

One of several courtyards on Brophy's idyllic campus

This is a high school?

I also dropped by Chaparral High, a public school in Scottsdale. While its campus isn't as gorgeous as that of Brophy, the baseball aspect is equal. Chaparral alumni include White Sox 1B Paul Konerko, Mets prospect and ASU alum Ike Davis, and Royals RHP Brian Bannister. Avid college fans might know former Firebirds Rob Brantly (UC Riverside), Jake Schlander (Stanford), Charles Brewer (UCLA), Jason Jarvis (ASU), Casey Lytle (Kansas), and Adam Bailey (Nebraska).

Chaparral's scoreboard lists the school's state and regional championships. It's a lengthy list.

Nice backdrop of mountains

It was fun to check out powerhouse high schools like Brophy and Chaparral. Next time I'm in Miami (Monsignor Pace), Las Vegas (Bishop Gorman), Texas (The Woodlands and Bellaire, among others), Knoxville (Farragut), or Oklahoma (Owasso), I'll have some more cool places to visit!

*Special thanks to my sister Sarah for the great photography!

White Sox at Angels, March 12

2010-03-17T18:46:00.009-05:00

The first game I saw in Arizona (here is the box score) was Friday afternoon at Tempe Diablo Stadium. It was a high-scoring game, with the White Sox downing the Angels, 10-7. Many big-name stars, including Jake Peavy, Torii Hunter, Kendry Morales, and Alex Rios, shined, but I focused on the young players of course. The biggest news involved White Sox outfielder Jared Mitchell. A 1st-round pick last year, Mitchell injured his ankle making a catch in left field and figures to be out for the season. It is a shame, as Mitchell is arguably Chicago's top prospect and will miss a full season of reps. An ankle injury is also particularly concerning for a player whose best tool is his blazing speed. As a side note, Mitchell's grab was the most spectacular piece of defensive work I've ever seen in person. The fleet-footed LSU product sprinted back and robbed Juan Rivera of extra bases while crashing into the wall and holding onto the ball. I regret not getting that on video. Here's hoping Mitchell has a speedy recovery and comes back at full strength next year.

This game wasn't teeming with prospects, but a few got some PT. Diminutive Angels 2B Alexi Amarista, a sleeper who hit .319/.390/.468 with 38 SB at Low A Cedar Rapids last season, got one at-bat. The 20-year-old Venezuelan has solid control of the strike zone, and posted a 50-61 BB-K ratio in 2009.

Angels C Hank Conger, a former 1st-round pick and arguably the team's top prospect, also entered for a late-game AB.

White Sox #5 prospect Brent Morel, who hit .281/.335/.453 with 16 HR in his first full season at High A Winston-Salem in 2009, started at third base. Morel (6-2, 220) isn't overly athletic or flashy, but he is a solid, well-rounded player.

I got several more videos from this game (though I wasn't in the front few rows so they are not as good as from other games). Here is White Sox OF Jordan Danks (Chicago's #4 prospect):

Here are 3B/1B Dayan Viciedo and OF Stefan Gartrell, a couple of big, power-hitting righties on whom I am not very high:

Last but not least, here is budding White Sox star Gordon Beckham. He posted a stout .351 wOBA as a 22/23-year-old rookie last season.

Arizona Trip

2010-03-17T15:19:00.003-05:00

I just returned from Arizona, where I spent five days and took in some great baseball and sunshine. I was able to see two games at Arizona State and three MLB Spring Training games (White Sox/Angels, Cubs/Reds, and Indians/Padres). I have dozens of pictures and almost 40 videos, which I will post and share once I have the time to sift through them all. Until then, here are a few preview pics to hold you over:

Cubs #1 prospect Starlin Castro taking infield

Yonder Alonso

Jay Bruce

College Top 25 Rankings: 3/15

2010-03-15T23:45:00.003-05:00

Baseball America Poll

1. Virginia

2. Texas

3. Georgia Tech

4. Louisville

5. Arizona State

6. Florida State

7. LSU

8. TCU

9. UCLA

10. Florida

11. Rice

12. Coastal Carolina

13. Clemson

14. Arkansas

15. UC Irvine

16. East Carolina

17. Miami

18. Oregon State

19. North Carolina

20. Ole Miss

21. Vanderbilt

22. Stanford

23. Cal State Fullerton

24. Oklahoma

25. Kansas

Next Tier

Texas A&M

Kentucky

Ohio State

Alabama

Southeastern Louisiana

Nice Work

Virginia definitively showed why it is #1 with a series win over Florida State in Tallahassee. The Cavaliers don't have elite pitching depth, but they have to be considered Omaha favorites at this point. OF Dan Grovatt and others continued to mash against the Seminoles.

Louisville continued to look like a CWS team by going on the road and taking a series from Ole Miss. The Cardinals are still without stars Andrew Clark and Josh Richmond, but are deep and talented enough to keep picking up Ws.

Kansas has been just outside the top 25 all season, and the Jayhawks finally entered after a huge series win at LSU. KU is missing stud 3B Tony Thompson and RHP Lee Ridenhour, but showed its grit with the win over the Tigers. OF Casey Lytle and RHP Brett Bochy (9 IP, 0 R, 19 K) are at the top of their games right now.

Several of the top players in the country are sophomores. Rice 3B Anthony Rendon (.362/.605/.787 with 6 HR and 27 BB) is there of course. Pitchers Taylor Jungmann, Danny Hultzen, Gerrit Cole, and Trevor Bauer showed this weekend again why they're so special. Jungmann (7.1 IP, 1 R, 17 K) dominated Iowa, Hultzen (6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K) shut down Florida State's high-flying offense, and Cole (7.2, 2 R, 15 K) and Bauer (8 IP, 2 R, 15 K) were masterful for UCLA. It's no wonder the Bruins are undefeated with frontline pitching like that, but the UCLA's offense has been a terrific surprise as well. If players such as Tyler Rahmatulla and Cody Keefer keep it up, the Bruins have a real shot at getting to Omaha. (Arizona State, which passed its first test against Auburn this weekend, is the lone unbeaten team besides UCLA.)

#8 TCU is having a fantastic season, and the Horned Frogs will only be more dangerous if freshman phenom Matt Purke duplicates his success this weekend. The lanky lefty tossed a complete game, gave up 1 run on 4 hits and 0 walks, and struck out 8 against Texas Tech. Check out this YouTube video for a great look at Purke.

Needs Work

North Carolina lost its weekend series against Duke and dropped a mid-week game against William & Mary. RHPs Matt Harvey (5 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 4 BB, 3 K) and Patrick Johnson (3.2 IP, 6 R) were not effective against the Blue Devils. On the bright side, touted freshman outfielder Brian Goodwin (.377/.506/.705) is heating up at the plate and blossoming into a star for UNC.

East Carolina continued to struggle in games on the West Coast. The Pirates this week dropped a mid-week game to Cal State Northridge and a weekend series to Pepperdine. ECU needs Zach Woods or Brad Mincey to seize the #3 starter role, and the Pirate bats aren't quite clicking on all cylinders right now. East Carolina should be fine, but the 8-6 current record isn't that special.

South Florida has had a trying season thus far. The Bulls are 4-12 after losing 2 of 3 against Eastern Illinois this past weekend. I still expect USF to fight with Connecticut and others for 2nd place in the Big East, but so far the Bulls haven't quite been able to maximize their potential.

Florida is in terrific shape and ranked in the top 10, but it hasn't all been rosy for the Gators. RHP Tommy Toledo will be out for several weeks after breaking his nose. Freshman Austin Maddox is bashing the ball, but still hasn't drawn a walk this season. The Gators also have to be kicking themselves for losing to Charleston Southern on Sunday.

Not Another Bryce Harper Post...

2010-03-09T03:06:00.000-06:00

Bryce Harper has generated more hype than a 17-year-old probably should. The CC of Southern Nevada freshman is not a slam-dunk, can't-miss prospect, and there is too much hyperbole surrounding him. With that said, I am encouraged by the results over Harper's first 20 games and would have no qualms taking him 1-1 if the draft were today. He is not flawless or a finished product, but Harper's natural tools are simply too loud to pass up at this point.

In a wood-bat conference, the 6-3, 205-pound Harper is hitting .408/.500/.831 through 71 at-bats. He has blasted 6 home runs and drawn 14 walks, making him the team leader in each of those categories. His pure strength and bat speed give him off-the-charts power, and Harper has showed it is usable in-game power. The biggest question offensively centers on the exaggerated hitch in Harper's load. He has whiffed 17 times this year and may not be an above-average contact hitter long-term. Scouts and fans should remind themselves Harper is only 17, though. He is a fierce gamer and has the intense drive to keep getting better. He seems to have toned down and quieted his stroke recently as well.

Harper has played catcher, third base, and the outfield this season, and it remains to be seen where he will end up. Along with his cannon arm, Harper has enough athleticism to stick at one of those positions. He projects to be an impact offensive player at any one of those spots. One can make the argument for a Jameson Taillon or a Deck McGuire, but personally I would line Harper up at #1 on the draft board at this point. He is not faultless or a sure bet, but I can't help but come away impressed at Bryce Harper's performance with a wood bat and against older competition this season.

College Top 25 Rankings: 3/8

2010-03-08T23:45:00.003-06:00

Baseball America Poll

1. Virginia (1)

Wright State ace Alex Kaminsky threw a gem to beat the Cavaliers on Friday, but they rebounded to finish the week 3-1. Virginia's pitching is steady, but its offense is really doing the heavy lifting (.381/.461/.559). Keith Werman and Phil Gosselin (.451/.473/.667 on the year) had great weeks. The upcoming UVa./Florida State weekend matchup will be enthralling.

2. LSU (2)

The undefeated Tigers continued to tear the cover off the ball this week. LSU will need ace Anthony Ranaudo back soon, but Micah Gibbs (.436/.500/.667), Trey Watkins (.366/.519/.561 with 6 SB), Matt Gaudet (.359/.457/.769 with 5 HR) and others are doing a fine job carrying the team on their back.

3. Texas (3)

Questions linger about the Longhorns' bats, but they managed to go 2-1 at the Houston College Classic over the weekend. Once Kevin Keyes, Connor Rowe, Cameron Rupp, and Russell Moldenhauer get going I don't think Texas will have as many struggles scoring runs. RHPs Taylor Jungmann (7.2 IP, 1 R, 8 K) and Brandon Workman (8 IP, 1 R, 7 K) were stellar on Friday and Saturday, respectively.

4. Florida State (5)

The Seminoles can make a case for being the most impressive team in the country over the season's first three weeks. FSU decimated Georgia this weekend and is now 10-0. The 'Noles unbelievably have a .511 team OBP and 5 batters with slash stats of .400/.500/.600 or above. LHPs Sean Gilmartin and John Gast are forming a nice duo atop the rotation.

5. Georgia Tech (4)

Georgia Tech pounded Rutgers by a combined score of 33-9 in 3 games. Deck McGuire dazzled once again (8 IP, 0 R, 9 K) and lefty Jed Bradley regained form (6 scoreless with 9 K) to lead the pitching staff. C Cole Leonida (.474/.545/.789) and OF Chase Burnette (.465/.489/.791) are blistering the ball this year and the Yellow Jackets have cracked 21 home runs already.

6. Arizona State (6)

The Sun Devils still haven't been tested much this season. They did stay undefeated on the year and scored 38 runs in 4 games on the week. A variety of hitters including Drew Maggi, Kole Calhoun, and Zach Wilson had strong weeks at the dish. I'm excited to catch some of the ASU/Auburn series this weekend (and hopefully ASU ace Josh Spence will be healthy by then).

7. Florida (7)

Florida had a solid week and won a series at rival Miami. The Gators still stand out for their deep roster, but they are still figuring out who will fill what roles.

8. Rice (8)

The Owls went 4-1 on the week, only losing a one-run game to Texas at the Houston College Classic. The best sign is that they had solid pitching from weekend starters Taylor Wall (7.1, 2 R, 8 K), Tony Cingrani (6.2, 2 R), and Boogie Anagnostou (7 IP, 1 R).

9. Coastal Carolina (9)

Coastal had a perfect week and has to be pleased with the efforts of aces Cody Wheeler (6.1, 3 R) and Anthony Meo (6 IP, 2 R). The Chanticleers' offense has been ignited by Rico Noel (.381/.552/.667 with 15 SB on the year).

10. Louisville (10)

The Cardinals continued to play like an Omaha team, playing well offensively and defensively despite being without 1B Andrew Clark and OF Josh Richmond. Louisville's trip to Oxford to take on #18 Mississippi will be a marquee matchup this weekend.

11. TCU (12)

The Horned Frogs lost a close one to Rice at the Houston College Classic, but won the rest of their games on the week. TCU is in fantastic shape in all phases of the game, and received strong weekend starts from Steven Maxwell (6 IP, 2 R), Matt Purke (5.1 IP, 1 R, 7 K), and Kyle Winkler (6.1 IP, 3 R).

12. East Carolina (11)

LHP Kevin Brandt moved up to Friday and continued to throw well (6 IP, 1 R, 8 K). ECU also got strong pitching from RHPs Seth Maness and Zach Woods (who relieved Brad Mincey on Saturday after he went down with an injury). The Pirates had a perfect week.

13. Clemson (13)

Clemson posted an impressive series victory over South Carolina over the weekend. The Tigers have to like that OF Chris Epps's bat is starting to heat up.

14. UCLA (16)

UCLA remained undefeated largely on the strength of its elite pitching. Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer, and Rob Rasmussen each surrendered just one run in their starts. The Bruins' offense (Tyler Rahmatulla, Dean Espy, and Cody Regis especially) have been doing their part as well, perhaps due to the influence of Assistant Coach Rick Vanderhook.

15. Arkansas (17)

Righty Mike Bolsinger pitched well on Friday (7 IP, 3 R) to help the Razorbacks take a series from Cal. Zack Cox, Andy Wilkins, and Tim Carver had nice weeks at the dish. Arkansas is now 8-2 overall.

16. North Carolina (18)

The Tar Heels swept Michigan to improve to 10-1. Junior RHP Matt Harvey was brilliant on Friday (8 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 11 K) to set the tone for the remainder of the weekend. 1B Dillon Hazlett (.395/.490/.579) has been the club's top hitter so far, and OF Ben Bunting (.464 OBP) has been very solid.

17. UC Irvine (14)

Irvine didn't play great this week, but did manage to win a weekend series versus St. Mary's. Eric Pettis was fantastic for the 'Eaters, throwing 8 innings on Saturday after finishing a game on Friday. LHP Daniel Bibona (7 IP, 2 R, 11 K) was also sharp, and I have little long-term concern for UCI. Its line drive-oriented offense will come around soon.

18. Ole Miss (19)

The Rebels won a good series at Tulane. Drew Pomeranz (6 IP, 1 R, 6 K) and Aaron Barrett (6.1 IP, 1 R, 7 K) performed well, but Trent Rothlin was tripped up (3.2 IP, 6 R) in a loss on Sunday.

19. Oregon State (21)

OSU lost to Arizona State but beat two weaker opponents at a tournament in Arizona. Lefties Tanner Robles (7.2 IP, 9 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 K) and Matt Boyd (6.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 7 K) stole the show in the two victories.

20. Miami (20)

Miami had a fairly uninspiring weekend, losing to Florida. The 'Canes will look to turn it around against Central Florida and Boston College in the upcoming week.

21. Ohio State (24)

Ohio State scored 12 runs per game this week and looks impressive (though it has not faced elite competition thus far). OF Michael Stephens (.481/.531/.889) and Zach Hurley (.409/.480/.705) are both seeing the ball well.

22. Vanderbilt (23)

Vandy didn't play its best, but did sweep three games in the Music City Classic. Sonny Gray (7 IP, 1 R, 10 K) and Taylor Hill (7.1 IP, 2 R) pitched well again. 1B Curt Casali tore it up at the plate and is now hitting .486/.592/.811, but will miss about two weeks with a hamstring injury. Bryan Johns continues to swing a hot stick and freshman SS Anthony Gomez has played terrifically when he has gotten the opportunity. The Commodores could use more consistency out of Sunday starter Jack Armstrong.

23. Stanford (NR)

Stanford beat UC Davis in a mid-week game then won a series against UC Santa Barbara this week. Youth still abounds in Stanford, as a bevy of underclassmen is getting its chance. OF Jake Stewart (.570 OPS) is struggling, but fellow super-frosh Kenny Diekroeger (.382/.447/.559) is still hot. The Trees have a nice matchup against Pepperdine coming up.

24. Cal State Fullerton (15)

What's up with the Big West superpowers? UC Irvine is just 6-5 while preseason #3 Fullerton has dropped two of three weekend series. Talented juniors Christian Colon (.225/.326/.325) and Gary Brown (478/.489/.826 with 7 SB) are trending in opposite directions. RHPs Noe Ramirez and Tyler Pill pitched well this week and I think the TItans will be turn everything around soon, but can't afford for ace Daniel Renken to miss much time (he left Friday's game with back stiffness).

25. Kentucky (25)

Alex Meyer was hit hard in a loss to San Diego State, and Taylor Rogers (2.1 IP, 10 R) flopped versus Monmouth, but the Wildcats won the three of four games on the week. LHP Logan Darnell tossed a complete-game shutout and 3B Andy Burns had a good week offensively.

Out

San Diego (22)

Next Tier

Oklahoma

South Carolina

Texas A&M

New Mexico

Kansas

College Top 25 Rankings: 3/1

2010-03-01T22:45:00.002-06:00

Baseball America Poll

1. Virginia (1)

The Cavs had a great week, pounding their opponents by a combined score of 48-7. All-world sophomore LHP Danny Hultzen was magnificent on Friday (7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 12 K). Undersized 2B Keith Werman had a great week again, and he seems to have cemented a spot in the starting lineup. The rest of Virginia's offense continues to look strong.

2. LSU (2)

LSU's potent offense was fine this week, and C Micah Gibbs is on fire. The Tigers barely squeaked by in a few games this week, though, and they could use injured ace Anthony Ranaudo back to give their pitching a lift. (Closer Matty Ott is still doing his thing, of course.)

3. Texas (3)

The world returned to normalcy as the preseason #1 team went 4-0 on the week (and swept a dangerous Stanford squad). Hurlers Taylor Jungmann (7 IP, 0 R, 10 K), Chance Ruffin (3.2 IP, 0 R), and Cole Green (5 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 6 K) were excellent, and the Horns' first-week struggles look like nothing more than a blip on the radar.

4. Georgia Tech (4)

GT's bash unit showed up in customary form this week, though Jed Bradley's poor start on Sunday against Xavier did hand the Yellow Jackets their first loss. Two of the most encouraging signs I see are Saturday starter Brandon Cumpton (who threw 7 shutout innings this week) and OF Chase Burnette, who is hitting a cool .531/.559/.844 after 34 PAs.

5. Florida State (5)

FSU put a beat-down on an inferior early-season opponent, shaming Hofstra by a combined 40-5 count. OF Tyler Holt and 2B Sherman Johnson were the primary instigators offensively. The Seminoles' vanilla rotation simply needs to keep them in ballgames, and LHPs Sean Gilmartin (6 scoreless, 7 K) and John Gast (5 scoreless, 6 K) were up to the task this weekend.

6. Arizona State (7)

Aussie ace Josh Spence is still out, but ASU didn't need him versus lowly Towson this weekend. The Sun Devils used their balanced offensive attack to put up 10 runs per game on the Tigers, and Riccio Torrez in particular had a strong weekend. Provided Spence can return soon, his absence could be a blessing in disguise, as the Devils have been forced to develop some pitching depth. RHPs Seth Blair, Jake Borup, Brady Rodgers, Merrill Kelly, and Jordan Swagerty (as well as LHP Mitchell Lambson) all showed flashes this week. ASU will finally have some real competition coming up this week.

7. Florida (9)

Florida's weekend series with La Salle was cancelled, but the Gators did pick up two mid-week victories. The upcoming week is huge, with ranked rivals Florida State and Miami on the schedule.

8. Rice (10)

Rice somewhat righted the ship, going 3-1 after a winless first week. The Owls' pitching situation is in flux, as coach Wayne Graham looks for arms to give him some quality innings. Boogie Anagnostou, Taylor Wall, Jared Rogers, and Tony Cingrani figure to handle the bulk of Rice's pitching load. The Owls' high-flying offense still has some room for improvement, but looks fine. Anthony Rendon is understandably being pitched around, and the sophomore third baseman has 11 walks already this season.

9. Coastal Carolina (11)

CCU had a superb week, going 5-0 against quality opponents including UC Irvine. LHP Cody Wheeler and RHP Anthony Meo were adequate, but I was really impressed with #3 starter Jim Birmingham and reliever Austin Fleet. C Jose Iglesias and OFs Chance Gilmore and Rico Noel led the Chants on offense.

10. Louisville (12)

Louisville continues to show why it will be a legitimate Omaha contender this season, beating two quality Big 10 foes en route to a 4-0 week. The Cardinals have ample solid arms (Thomas Royse, Dean Kiekhefer, Tony Zych, Neil Holland) and a tough lineup (including big-time threats Stewart Ijames, Andrew Clark, Phil Wunderlich, and Ryan Wright).

11. East Carolina (14)

As with Coastal Carolina, ECU had a great weekend and showed who the class of the Carolinas is this year. The Pirates lost Friday, but came back to take the series from South Carolina. They have to be thrilled with the bounce-back start on Sunday from Brad Mincey (7 IP, 1 R). ECU could use a boost from slumping but talented OF Devin Harris.

12. TCU (15)

The dangerous Horned Frogs showed again that they have Cal State Fullerton's number, beating the Titans in Fullerton for the second year in a row. Steven Maxwell (6.1 IP, 1 R) pitched well on Friday, as did Kyle Winkler (6 IP, 1 R) on Sunday. Top freshman Matt Purke, who struggled on Saturday, is still looking to get in a groove on the mound. OF Jason Coats and C Bryan Holaday had good weeks at the plate.

13. Clemson (13)

Clemson enjoyed another perfect weekend and moved to 6-0. OFs Jeff Schaus and Kyle Parker had good weeks at the dish. The Tigers have a monster series against South Carolina on tap. Give the slight edge to Clemson, but that will be a battle with both bitter rivals looking to make a statement.

14. UC Irvine (6)

Irvine had a tough week, losing to N.C. State and twice to Coastal Carolina. Daniel Bibona didn't throw Bibona-esque, and the Anteaters primarily relied on a Johnny Wholestaff approach. Many 'Eater bats went cold, but middle-of-the-order threat Brian Hernandez is back and UCI should be fine long-term.

15. Cal State Fullerton (8)

The Titans disappointed again, dropping two of three to (admittedly lethal) TCU. Daniel Renken, Noe Ramirez, and Tyler Pill were not able to produce any dominant outings, and CSF simply hasn't played vintage Titan ball over the season's first six games. Fullerton will undoubtedly rebound soon.

16. UCLA (19)

The Bruins' pitching might (opponents mustered 4 runs over 3 games) carried them to a perfect week again. There are louder offenses than UCLA's, but pitchers like Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer look poised to help their program shake the underachiever tag.

17. Arkansas (17)

Arkansas swept a decent Troy team over the weekend and holds steady. The Hogs received brief, effective outings from Mike Bolsinger (4 IP, 1 R), Brett Eibner (3 IP, 1 R), and T.J. Forrest (4 scoreless), and were carried offensively by stalwarts Andy Wilkins and Zack Cox.

18. North Carolina (18)

UNC's depleted offense only scraped together five hits in a loss against Maine on Saturday, but the Tar Heels won the rest of their games on the week. The big question is if ace RHP Matt Harvey's Friday night start (6.1, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 9 K) was an aberration or a sign that he's harnessing his big-time stuff.

19. Ole Miss (21)

Granted it was against a weak Oakland team, but the Rebels had three very encouraging pitching performances over the weekend. If Drew Pomeranz (7 IP, 1 R, 0 BB, 15 K), Aaron Barrett (6 IP, 1 R, 2 BB, 7 K), and Trent Rothlin (5 IP, 0 R) can maintain this, Ole Miss will be in fantastic shape.

20. Miami (20)

Lefties Chris Hernandez (7 IP, 1 R) and Eric Erickson (6 IP, 3 ER) both pitched well again this weekend. Jason Santana's struggles on Sunday, however, have to be a concern for the Hurricanes. The most intriguing matchup of the week (Wednesday vs. Florida Gulf Coast and Chris Sale) was wiped out. The week to come offers a good gauge of the Miami's talent, as the U welcomes the Florida Gators for a three-game set.

21. Oregon State (22)

The big storyline surrounding OSU's 3-1 week has to be Greg Peavey's sensational start on Sunday. The junior righty is one of many ballyhooed members of the Beavers' arms corps, but his CG shutout was the first time he truly dominated. Tyler Waldron also had a great showing (7.2 IP, 1 R) on Friday.

22. San Diego (16)

The Toreros lost a series to San Diego State and are now just 4-4 overall. They will need to reawaken their bats after pushing across just 8 runs in 4 games on the week. USD pitchers piled up the Ks, but only LHP Sammy Solis (6 scoreless on Saturday) completely held the Aztec offense in check.

23. Vanderbilt (24)

Vandy lost to UCLA on Friday (as ace Sonny Gray allowed 6 runs in 4.1 IP), but rebounded with wins over USC and Oklahoma State to make their cross-country trek worthwhile. Righty Taylor Hill threw well again Saturday (6 IP, 1 R) and was backed up by Bryan Johns (4-for-5) and Jason Esposito (2-for-4 with a homer). LHP Richie Goodenow bailed starter Jack Armstrong out with a sterling relief effort and the Commodores outlasted the Cowboys on Sunday. Esposito and Johns have torn the cover off the ball, but Vanderbilt would like to get the bats of 2B Riley Reynolds and OF Mike Yastrzemski going.

24. Ohio State (NR)

The Buckeyes toppled South Florida and Notre Dame in the Big East/Big Ten Challenge, before losing to Cincinnati on Sunday. OSU's Alex Wimmers, one of the top hurlers in the country, pitched 8 innings of 1-run ball on Friday.

25. Kentucky (NR)

Even without James Paxton, the Wildcats appear confident and ready to compete with anyone. UK has built an imposing rotation of Alex Meyer, Taylor Rogers, and Logan Darnell, and the trio has helped the 'Cats to their 6-0 start. Chris Bisson is getting the job done at second base to the tune of .414/.514/.759.

Out

Stanford (25)

Southern Miss (23)

Next Tier

South Carolina

Georgia

Kansas

Oklahoma

Texas A&M

College Top 25 Rankings: 2/22

2010-02-22T23:36:00.002-06:00

College baseball opened with a flourish around the country this past weekend. Before my rankings, check out Baseball America, Rivals, and College Baseball Today.

1. Virginia (2)

It wasn't pretty, but the talented Cavaliers took two of three at East Carolina to take over the #1 ranking. LHP Danny Hultzen was solid on Friday night (6 IP, 2 ER), while 3B Steven Proscia and 2B Keith Werman had nice series.

2. LSU (4)

The defending champs swept Centenary this weekend on the strength of two close games and a 25-8 rout. Sophomore righty Joey Bourgeois (6 shutout innings with 7 punchouts on Sunday) might have been the most encouraging development, as the Tigers are looking for quality arms to help Anthony Ranaudo and Matty Ott.

3. Texas (1)

The Longhorns stumbled to a series loss against New Mexico, thereby relinquishing their #1 position. Taylor Jungmann showed his ace potential with a 7-inning, 2-run, 8-strikeout performance on Friday. I don't know what Chance Ruffin is doing in the bullpen, though. The righthander was the dependable staff ace the last two years and has a chance to be one of the best pitchers in the country. Maybe his bullpen struggles will make Augie Garrido think about putting him back in the rotation. Texas is still one of the best teams in the nation, but they've already shown they're not unbeatable.

4. Georgia Tech (5)

Tech didn't really prove anything by sweeping Missouri State, but certain individual performances make me like their club even more. Along with Deck McGuire's typical masterpiece (7 IP, 0 R, 0 BB, 10 K) and Tony Plagman's customary ball-bashing exploits, the Yellow Jackets received encouraging contributions from sophomore lefty Jed Bradley (6 IP, 0 R, 12 K) and junior OF Chase Burnette (8-for-11, 2 HR). Shortstop Derek Dietrich, however, did not draw favorable reviews.

5. Florida State (7)

In typical FSU fashion, the Seminoles scored double-digits in each game of a three-game sweep. Stephen Cardullo, Tyler Holt, Jayce Boyd, Sherman Johnson, and others led the potent offensive attack. Lefties Sean Gilmartin and John Gast had solid starts on Friday and Sunday, respectively. Look for more crooked numbers when FSU hosts Hofstra this weekend.

6. UC Irvine (8)

Daniel Bibona dazzled on Friday (7 IP, 0 R, 0 BB, 10 K). and helped the Anteaters sweep Loyola Marymount. UC Irvine's offense, led by good contact hitters like Ryan Fisher, Casey Stevenson, and Francis Larson, came through with 33 runs in three games.

7. Arizona State (9)

The Sun Devils tore apart their cold-weather opponent (Northern Illinois) as expected, showing in the process the variety of offensive contributors they have. Zach Wilson, Matt Newman, Riccio Torrez, Kole Calhoun, Drew Maggi, and Zack McPhee will all play major roles this season. I'm not sure whether to be concerned or not over ace lefty Josh Spence's arm soreness, which knocked him out of action on Friday. ASU has another easy task this week, with Towson coming to town for a three games.

8. Cal State Fullerton (3)

I like the Titans' team, but they didn't play well this weekend, dropping games to Oregon and Pepperdine. Fullerton mustered a combined three runs in its two losses and didn't quite clamp down on the pitching end either. The best performances came from RHP Tyler Pill (7 IP, 0 ER on Sunday) and OF Gary Brown (6-for-14 with 4 stolen bases). Freshman RHP Dylan Floro also got his career started on the right foot. The Titans have their work cut out for them with TCU coming to town this weekend.

9. Florida (10)

The Gators looked very impressive in a weekend of South Florida. Young hurlers Brian Johnson, Tommy Toledo, and Anthony DeSclafani threw well, and frosh backstops Austin Maddox and Michael Zunino flashed their potential. Florida looks very dangerous.

10. Rice (6)

Rice was the highest-ranked team to be swept, going down to host Stanford in three consecutive games. Superstar 3B Anthony Rendon and freshman Michael Ratteree played fine, but the Owls' pitching was the culprit. It will be interesting to see how Wayne Graham sorts out his staff behind solid lefty Taylor Wall.

11. Coastal Carolina (11)

The Chanticleers won the first two games of their tournament but lost to Kentucky on Sunday. RHP Anthony Meo (2.2 IP, 5 R, 2 ER) and 3B Scott Woodward (1-for-12) will look to bounce back this week.

12. Louisville (13)

I was very impressed by Louisville this past weekend. The Cardinals (particularly Andrew Clark, Ryan Wright, Stewart Ijames, and Adam Duvall) mashed like expected, and they got some nice pitching contributions as well. Thomas Royse, Bob Revesz, Neil Holland, and Matt Lea look solid, though Tony Zych (0 IP, 7 R) will have to bounce back this week.

13. Clemson (14)

Clemson impressed in three wins this weekend, albeit against inferior opponents. The usual suspects carried the Tigers, with Kyle Parker and Mike Freeman having good series at the dish and lefty Casey Harman tossing 5 scoreless innings on Friday. OF Will Lamb is a big breakout candidate; the sophomore went 4-for-4 with a home run and added 2.1 scoreless innings on the mound. (Baseball America named him the top prospect in the Coastal Plains League last summer.)

14. East Carolina (12)

ECU lost a series at home, but there's not much to be concerned about. The Pirates faced then-#2 Virginia, won on Saturday, and generally had solid individual performances. Hurlers Kevin Brandt, Seth Maness, and Mike Wright showed well (though Brad Mincey, who surrendered 6 runs on Sunday, needs a bounce-back). The Pirate bats are alive and well, as evidenced by the bashing from Dustin Harrington (5-for-13 with 1 HR) and John Wooten (3-for-8 with 2 bombs).

15. TCU (15)

The Horned Frogs swept Sam Houston State this weekend to hold steady at #15. Starting pitchers Steven Maxwell and Matt Purke were solid, but I was most impressed by freshman OF Josh Elander, who kicked his TCU career off by going 8-for-10.

16. San Diego (16)

In taking three of four from Indiana, San Diego's bats were very impressive. James Meador, Bryan Haar, Chris Engell, and Kevin Muno contributed to a combined 39-run outburst. USD's talented pitching staff is characteristically its hallmark, but the offense could make them an elite overall team.

17. Arkansas (17)

Arkansas took two of three from Ball State (a solid opponent), but the Razorbacks didn't look overly impressive. Sophomore 2B Bo Bigham injured his shoulder and will likely miss a month or more.

18. North Carolina (18)

In eking out a sweep of George Washington, the Tar Heels displayed why they are a solid team but likely won't be able to match the top-notch play of the last four years. UNC received excellent starts from righties Patrick Johnson (7 IP, 1 R, 7 K) and Colin Bates (7 IP, 3 R), and hit the ball just adequately.

19. UCLA (19)

Just like it was drawn up, the Bruins got stellar starts last weekend from twin aces Gerrit Cole (6 IP, 2 ER, 9 K) and Trevor Bauer (8 IP, 3 ER, 13 K). Fellow underclassmen Steve Rodriguez and Beau Amaral paced the offense. I'm still waiting for Rob Rasmussen to live up to his potential and round out the rotation. UCLA has a tough week coming up, with Long Beach State, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma State, and USC on the schedule.

20. Miami (20)

Miami swept Rutgers behind strong offense and a nice return from Tommy John surgery from Eric Erickson (5.2 IP, 1 R, 6 K). The Hurricanes were led at the dish by Chris Pelaez, Harold Martinez, David Villasuso, and Yasmani Grandal, four players who will be crucial this season.

21. Ole Miss (21)

Completely opposite of what was expected, Rebels ace Drew Pomeranz struggled while Aaron Barrett and Trent Rothlin had strong starts to round out the weekend. Mike Bianco has to love the performances from the latter two, as they are vital to Mississippi's chances this year. The Rebels have a solid offense and should be able to pick up four wins this week.

22. Oregon State (22)

OSU won three of four versus Hawaii. Carter Bell, who is replacing Joey Wong at shortstop, went 7-for-13 on the week. Power-armed enigmas Tanner Robles and Greg Peavey pitched decently, and underclassmen such as Matt Boyd, Sam Gaviglio, and Tony Bryant were even better. The Beavers have an interesting matchup against Tennessee this week.

23. Southern Miss (24)

The Golden Eagles managed to take two of three from Northwestern State. RHP Todd McInnis was brilliant on Friday (6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 K) as usual. Joey Archer had a great weekend (8-for-13), as did stud shortstop B.A. Vollmuth.

24. Vanderbilt (24)

The Commodores took care of business as expected this weekend, overmatching Niagara by a combined score of 46-5 over three games. Sonny Gray was outstanding on Friday night (8 IP, 0 R, 7 K) and Saturday man Taylor Hill pitched well also (6.2 IP, 0 R, 9 K). Among the many offensive stars, Jason Esposito and Aaron Westlake stand out. Vandy will face stiffer competition in the Dodgertown Classic in California this weekend.

25. Stanford (NR)

The Trees hop in the rankings after taking a broom to Rice, previously the #6 team. Stanford might have had the most impressive weekend of any team in the country. The young rotation of Jordan Pries, Scott Snodgress, and Brett Mooneyham flashed its potential, as did the talented freshman in the lineup (Kenny Diekroeger, Stephen Piscotty, Jake Stewart). The Cardinal have a huge test coming up this weekend, with a trip to #3 Texas on the docket.

Out

Georgia (23)

Next Tier

South Carolina

Ohio State

Kansas

Oklahoma

Kentucky

Preseason College Top 25 Rankings

2010-02-15T15:08:00.005-06:00

I will do a weekly college poll (actually just rankings, not a poll) this year. Check it out on Mondays along with others like Baseball America and Rivals. I have sedulously pored over the teams, and here are my initial rankings.

1. Texas

Coach: Augie Garrido

2009 Finish: CWS runner-up

The Longhorns have an embarrassment of riches on the mound. The weekend rotation of Taylor Jungmann, Cole Green, and Brandon Workman has the potential to be special. Chance Ruffin has experience pitching on Fridays, and he will switch to a multi-inning, moment-of-truth reliever. (I would have opted to keep Ruffin in the Friday slot, as he is one of the best in the business.) The 'Horns have a deep staff, and their defense, led by shortstop Brandon Loy, should be excellent as well. Texas isn't as strong offensively, but players such as Cameron Rupp, Kevin Keyes, Connor Rowe, and Russell Moldenhauer will get the job done.

2. Virginia

Coach: Brian O'Connor

2009 Finish: CWS

Virginia has an immensely talented, balanced club. Jarrett Parker, Phil Gosselin, Tyler Cannon, Steven Proscia, and Dan Grovatt are offensive studs. Danny Hultzen leads a shutdown rotation, and the Cavaliers have above-average athleticism and defense to boot.

3. Cal State Fullerton

Coach: Dave Serrano

2009 Finish: CWS

The Titans return their entire weekend rotation, which was outstanding last season. Shortstop Christian Colon is a superstar who will lead the Titans.

4. LSU

Coach: Paul Mainieri

2009 Finish: CWS title

Anthony Ranaudo and Matty Ott are arguably the top starter and reliever, respectively, in the game. The Tigers lost a lot from last year's championship team, but they kept cogs such as Blake Dean, Micah Gibbs, and Mikie Mahtook.

5. Georgia Tech

Coach: Danny Hall

2009 Finish: Regionals

Georgia Tech always looks better on paper than in reality. The Yellow Jackets have high-upside pitchers in Deck McGuire, Brandon Cumpton, Mark Pope, and Kevin Jacob. Their lineup, led by Matt Skole, Tony Plagman, and Derek Dietrich, has some of the most thump in the nation.

6. Rice

Coach: Wayne Graham

2009 Finish: Super Regionals

Similar to last season, the Owls have a terrific offense and a mix-and-match formula on the mound. Anthony Rendon, Rick Hague, Diego Seastrunk, Michael Fuda, and Chad Mozingo star in a fearsome lineup.

7. Florida State

Coach: Mike Martin

2009 Finish: Super Regionals

FSU's rotation is not dominating, but won't need to be because its offense is so productive. Tyler Holt is one of the top sparkplugs in the country, and Stuart Tapley, Mike McGee, and Stephen Cardullo mash behind him. The Seminoles' pitching may be undersold as well, as Sean Gilmartin, Brian Busch, and McGee are good competitors.

8. UC Irvine

Coach: Mike Gillespie

2009 Finish: Regionals

Irvine has to be elated, as they retained senior pitchers Daniel Bibona, Christian Bergman, and Eric Pettis. The Anteaters have an excellent run prevention unit. They lack power, but can skill it up on offense. Brian Hernandez, Francis Larson, Casey Stevenson, Cory Olson, D.J. Crumlich, Jeff Cusick, and Ronnie Shaeffer form an above-average, contact-oriented offense.

9. Arizona State

Coach: Tim Esmay

2009 Finish: CWS

ASU lost an incredible amount of talent (from ace Mike Leake to bash brothers Jason Kipnis and Carlos Ramirez to head coach Pat Murphy), but I still think the Sun Devils could be in for a return engagement to Omaha. Josh Spence is among the top hurlers in the country, and Mitchell Lambson, Seth Blair, and Jordan Swagerty will give him enough backup. ASU has a wealth of talented position players: Matt Newman, Kole Calhoun, Zach Wilson, Johnny Ruettiger, Drew Maggi, Riccio Torrez, Xorge Carrillo, Deven Marrero, Andy Workman, and Zack McPhee.

10. Florida

Coach: Kevin O'Sullivan

2009 Finish: Super Regionals

The Gators have gotten their mojo back under Kevin O'Sullivan. They hosted a Super Regional last season and have brought in top-notch recruiting classes of late. Florida has several excellent underclassman arms, and first baseman Preston Tucker could be one of the top hitters in the country.

11. Coastal Carolina

Coach: Gary Gilmore

2009 Finish: Regionals

Let's hear it for the mid-majors! Coastal always puts out a competitive ballclub, but this year they have a legitimate shot to be the top team in the Carolinas and make it to Omaha. The Chanticleers have a great 1-2 punch of lefty Cody Wheeler and righty Anthony Meo, as well as several other interesting arms. Their offense features speedsters (Rico Noel, Scott Woodward) and hitters with pop (Daniel Bowman, Adam Rice, Jose Iglesias).

12. East Carolina

Coach: Billy Godwin

2009 Finish: Super Regionals

I rate the Pirates this highly because I believe in their pitching. Seth Maness, Kevin Brandt, Brad Mincey, and Seth Simmons aren't overpowering, but they'll keep their team in the game. ECU has its typical thunder in the lineup, with Kyle Roller, Devin Harris, Trent Whitehead, and Dustin Harrington.

13. Louisville

Coach: Dan McDonnell

2009 Finish: Super Regionals

The Cardinals, who have reached Super Regionals 2 of the last 3 seasons, boast a strong offensive attack. Phil Wunderlich, Andrew Clark, Adam Duvall, Stewart Ijames, Ryan Wright, and Josh Richmond could make a lethal lineup. Louisville's ability to prevent runs is more of an unknown, but Tony Zych, Thomas Royse, Dean Kiekhefer, and others have potential.

14. Clemson

Coach: Jack Leggett

2009 Finish: Super Regionals

Clemson retains most of last year's lineup, and could take the step forward to an excellent offensive team. Jeff Schaus, Kyle Parker, Brad Miller, Chris Epps, Jason Stolz, and Richie Shaffer are all picks to click. The Tigers don't have a true ace, but they have a deep pitching staff.

15. TCU

Coach: Jim Schlossnagle

2009 Finish: Super Regionals

The Horned Frogs have ample high-upside arms, particularly Matt Purke, Kyle Winkler, and Steven Maxwell, though they lack a proven #1. I think their pitching will be well above-average if they all come together. TCU's offense isn't as exciting, but Bryan Holaday, Jason Coats, Matt Curry, Taylor Featherston, and Josh Elander are ones to watch.

16. San Diego

Coach: Rich Hill

2009 Finish: did not make Regionals

As usual, the Toreros have terrific arms and a modest offense. A.J. Griffin, Kyle Blair, and Sammy Solis have the potential to form one of the best weekend rotations in the country. James Meador leads an offense with below-average power but solid contact ability. They still haven't won a Regional, but the Toreros once again have the potential to do so.

17. Arkansas

Coach: Dave Van Horn

2009 Finish: CWS

Andy Wilkins and Zack Cox will provide the thump in the Razorbacks' lineup. Brett Eibner, Travis Sample, and Jarrod McKinney have potential, but need to unlock it. Arkansas's pitching, defense, and speed are adequate.

18. North Carolina

Coach: Mike Fox

2009 Finish: CWS

The Tar Heels lost a huge amount of talent to the draft last year and will be hard-pressed to make it to the College World Series for the 5th straight season. UNC has many intriguing players, though, from infielder Levi Michael to pitchers Matt Harvey and Patrick Johnson.

19. UCLA

Coach: John Savage

2009 Finish: did not make Regionals

UCLA's weekend rotation is comprised of two filthy righthanders (Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer) and a curveball specialist (Rob Rasmussen). The Bruins have depth after those three, as well as a solid defense, and should excel in the run prevention department. Their offense is puny and they need to shake the underachiever tag.

20. Miami

Coach: Jim Morris

2009 Finish: Regionals

Lefties Chris Hernandez and Eric Erickson should form a nice 1-2 punch for the Hurricanes, who also have a strong defense. Yasmani Grandal, Harold Martinez, and Scott Lawson are their top hitters, and I don't anticipate them being much more than average on offense.

21. Ole Miss

Coach: Mike Bianco

2009 Finish: Super Regionals

Ole Miss has the personnel to be slightly above-average in all phases of the game. Drew Pomeranz is a true #1, and Aaron Barrett and Trent Rothlin round out the weekend rotation. The Rebels are led at the plate by Matt Smith, Miles Hamblin, and Matt Snyder. All three can hit for average and power. Mississippi should boast a strong defense.

22. Oregon State

Coach: Pat Casey

2009 Finish: Regionals

The Beavers have a mediocre offense and absolutely no power. Jared Norris, Stefen Romero, and Adalberto Santos are the main threats. Their pitching staff has the potential to be stellar, however, and it's spearheaded by Sam Gaviglio, Tyler Waldron, Kevin Rhoderick, Greg Peavey, Tanner Robles, James Nygren, and Kraig Sitton.

23. Georgia

Coach: David Perno

2009 Finish: Regionals

The Bulldogs lost a lot of talent, but I still like their squad. Position player-wise, they are more deep than top-heavy, with Colby May, Johnathan Taylor, Chase Davidson, Peter Verdin, and Zach Cone. Georgia has unproven but electric arms, led by Justin Grimm, Michael Palazzone, Jeff Walters, and Alex McRee.

24. Southern Miss

Coach: Scott Berry

2009 Finish: CWS

A consistently competitive program, Southern Miss got hot and made it to the College World Series in '09, and it has a solid team this year too. The Golden Eagles have a variety of offensive contributors (Joey Archer, Taylor Walker, Kameron Brunty), but B.A. Vollmuth is the X-factor. The sophomore could blossom into a star this year. With an otherwise unspectacular arms corps, the Golden Eagles will rely heavily on ace Todd McInnis.

25. Vanderbilt

Coach: Tim Corbin

2009 Finish: Regionals

Kendall Rogers of Rivals offered five keys for Vanderbilt to finally get to Omaha, and I agree with the assessment. Aside from Steven Liddle and Jonathan White, the Commodores return most of their bats and should have a potent offensive unit. Position players such as Aaron Westlake, Jason Esposito, Andrew Giobbi, Curt Casali, Riley Reynolds, Brian Harris, and Joe Loftus are ready to carry the offense. Vandy's pitching staff has depth, with quality options such as Taylor Hill, Russell Brewer, Drew Hayes, Chase Reid, and Navery Moore. The Commodores will incorporate talented freshmen such as Sam Selman, Anthony Gomez, Regan Flaherty, Connor Harrell, and Mike Yastrzemski into the fold this year. If sophomore starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Jack Armstrong pitch like the studs atop the rotation like many believe they can be, Vanderbilt will be formidable.

Just Missing

Ohio State

South Carolina

Kansas

Stanford

Cal Poly

Top 20 College Players

2010-02-14T01:39:00.007-06:00

Doing a good season preview is painstaking and laborious; I will only do a preseason top 25 and a list of the best players in the nation. The various college baseball sites out in the interwebs do a magnificent job putting out the preview content anyway. In particular, check out Baseball America, College Baseball Today, and Rivals for the lowdown on the 2010 season. Without any regard to draft status or professional future, here's my list of the best D-1 college players for 2010. (Keep in mind that this is an inexact overview of the college landscape, and there is a preponderance of great players beyond this list.)

Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice

Sophomore is capable of hitting .400/.500/.800 with 20+ homers and solid defense.

Anthony Ranaudo, rhp, LSU

Top draft prospect with excellent size and stuff.

Christian Colon, ss, Cal State Fullerton

Gamer embodies Titan baseball, is dangerous on both sides of the ball.

Bryce Brentz, of, Middle Tennessee State

Hit an astonishing .465/.535/.930 with 28 homers last season.

Deck McGuire, rhp, Georgia Tech

Proven ACC ace with plus stuff.

Josh Spence, lhp, Arizona State

Crafty Aussie toys with batters and will be crucial for ASU this season.

Drew Pomeranz, lhp, Ole Miss

Has devastating fastball-curve combo, was great in the postseason in '09.

Chris Sale, lhp, Florida Gulf Coast

Talented lefty could help FGCU take the Atlantic Sun title.

Daniel Bibona, lhp, UC Irvine

The Anteaters are thrilled their dependable ace is back for his senior season.

Tyler Holt, of, Florida State

Leadoff man compiled .520 OBP and 34 SBs last season.

Jarrett Parker, of, Virginia

Lacks control of the strike zone, but is an all-around beast at the college level.

Daniel Renken, rhp, Cal State Fullerton

Steady righthander will be a key cog in Fullerton's weekend rotation for the third year in a row.

Danny Hultzen, lhp, Virginia

Primed to build on his phenomenal freshman season. Three solid pitches, nifty first baseman on the side.

Alex Wimmers, rhp, Ohio State

K machine with plus curveball. Watch out for the Buckeyes.

Trevor Bauer, rhp, UCLA
Long-toss freak with nasty stuff, deception.

Gerrit Cole, rhp, UCLA

Now that Stephen Strasburg has moved on to bigger and better things, Cole has the most electric arm in the nation.

Taylor Jungmann, rhp, Texas

Showed in Omaha last year why many think he's on the verge of superstardom.

Tony Thompson, 3B, Kansas

Will miss first several weeks of '10 with injury, but hit .389/.442/.753 with 21 bombs last season.

Zack Cox, 3B, Arkansas

Big-time power from the left side, strong arm suits him well at third and in the bullpen.

Sleepers

B.A. Vollmuth, ss, Southern Miss

Levi Michael, 3B, North Carolina

Preston Tucker, 1B, Florida

Sam Gaviglio, rhp, Oregon State

Todd Cunningham, of, Jacksonville State

Sonny Gray, rhp, Vanderbilt

Robert "Bullet Bob" Morey, rhp, Virginia

Mike McGee, of/rhp, Florida State

Gary Brown, of, Cal State Fullerton

Sammy Solis, lhp, San Diego

Who else do you think deserves a spot?

Vanderbilt's Recruiting Class

2010-02-13T23:16:00.001-06:00

Vanderbilt has brought in some outstanding recruiting classes of late. Former recruiting coordinator Erik Bakich, known in college baseball circles to be an up-and-comer, left to fill the head coaching vacancy at Maryland, but the Commodores replaced him with another top-notch recruiter in Josh Holliday. Vandy has signed another strong class for the 2011 season, including five players on the PnR Scouting's Top 300 Draft Prospects list and two that appear on Baseball America's Top 100 High School list. The 'Dores now have the tough task of getting all of these recruits through the draft without them going pro. A look at the commits that I know of so far:

Kevin Ziomek, LHP, Amherst Regional HS (MA)

PnR

Conrad Gregor, 1B, Carmel HS (IN)

Robbie Ray, LHP, Brentwood HS (TN)

Joel McKeithan, SS, T.C. Roberson HS (NC)

TJ Pecoraro, RHP, Half Hollow Hills West HS (NY)

PnR

Spencer Navin, C, Dowling Catholic HS (IA)

Others

Josh Lee, IF, Independence High School (TN)

Steven Rice, LHP, Crawfordsville HS (IN)

Ranking the Minor League Talent, 1-30

2010-02-12T20:06:00.002-06:00

It is a tough year to sort out the organizational talent. There is no consensus Top System or Worst System, and different people can line up the teams many different ways. It would not shock me if, say, the #25 system winds up churning out a better group than #5.

The overall MiLB crop is on a down cycle, and there are a plethora of teams in the middle of the pack (which is why I didn't put the numbers next to the teams--many are essentially interchangeable). This is more of a snapshot overview also; for more scientific organizational talent rankings, turn to Keith Law or Baseball America.

The teams are rated on their impact talent and their depth. How many stars will this system likely produce, and how many big league contributors? Players are judged according to their upside, their chances of reaching that ceiling, and their floor.

State of the System: Washington Nationals

2010-02-12T19:53:00.001-06:00

Quick Look

There's nowhere to go but up for the Nationals. Their major league club finished worst in the majors last season (the second year in a row), their farm system is lagging, and attendance is down even at a new stadium. Washington has a mediocre farm system--most of its depth comes in the form of future middle relievers or #5 starters. The franchise has a lot pinned on its top couple prospects, who have star potential.

Top Prospects

Stephen Strasburg, rhp

Age: 21 Level: none-MLB

Strasburg went #1 in last year's draft and has been covered and scrutinized excessively; he's perhaps the most hyped prospect ever. Strasburg simply has an outstanding arm, as his fastball sits around 94-98 mph. The 6-4, 220-pounder has been clocked at triple digits, and Strasburg also throws a hellacious breaking ball with late bite. Those two pitches allowed him to rack up 195 Ks in 109 IP (an incomprehensible 47.6%) during his junior season at San Diego State. He complements that duo with a newly-developed 90 mph changeup, which has sink and could be a plus pitch. Strasburg has above-average command, especially considering his high-octane stuff. Considered a liability coming out of high school, Strasburg's makeup and work ethic are now regarded as pluses. The main concern is his delivery and arm action, which some pitching evaluators believe will lead to a breakdown, or at least an injury-riddled career a la Mark Prior. He showed he's not invincible (as well as how dominating he can be) in the Arizona Fall League. Strasburg won't need much time at all in the minors.

Derek Norris, c

Age: 21 Level: Low A-High A

Norris had an excellent season with the bat in 2009, hitting .286/.413/.513 with a 16.7 BB% in Low A. The 6-0, 210-pounder pounded 23 homers. Norris is not a good bet to be an above-average contact hitter, however, as he strikes out and hits fly balls frequently. His defense is a work in progress. He has a solid arm, but played third base in high school and needs more refinement behind the plate. Norris would develop into a power-hitting, walk-taking catcher with steady defense in the Nats' optimal world. He'll move up to High A for the 2010 season.

Drew Storen, rhp

Age: 22 Level: Double-A-MLB

He fit perfectly for the Nationals as a cost-effective option for the 10th pick in last year's draft, but Storen has legitimate upside. The Stanford product features a 91-93 mph fastball that touches the mid-90s, as well as a late-breaking, power slider. He has fine control, but does surrender a fair amount of home runs. Lefties also handle Storen better than samesiders. His aggressive mentality suits him well in the back of the bullpen. A classic college reliever on the fast track, the 6-2 Storen should be ready pretty much whenever Washington needs him this season. Long-term, he could be a set-up man or possibly a closer.

Ian Desmond, ss

Age: 24 Level: MLB

Desmond, a 2004 3rd-rounder, developed at a maddeningly slow pace, spending parts of three seasons in the Carolina League and finally reaching the majors in '09. Desmond has the tools to be an everyday shortstop. A slick fielder, the 6-2, 210-pounder has range and a strong arm (though he can be inconsistent). His bat speed gives him a chance to be above-average offensively as well. Desmond doesn't have great control of the strike zone, but he has improved drastically in that regard (36-71 BB-K in 2009). The owner of a .259/.326/.388 career MiLB line, Desmond seemed to find his stroke last year and posted a .400+ wOBA between Double-A and Triple-A. He has solid pop. He's bound to regress, but I think I'm finally convinced he will be a big league regular. His consistency could improve, but Desmond is essentially ready for a full-time MLB gig.

Danny Espinosa, ss

Age: 22 Level: High A-Double-A

Espinosa creates a divide among prospectors. Some see the former Long Beach State Dirtbag as a gamer with plus defense and solid hitting potential from both sides of the plate. He hit .264/.375/.460 with 18 home runs and a 12.8 BB% in High A in 2009. Others question Espinosa's bat, however. He is an unorthodox player and whiffed at a 22.4% rate last season. His tools aren't overwhelming, but Espinosa's defense is above-average and he could be a solid regular. I'm interested to see how he fares in Double-A.

Chris Marrero, 1B

Age: 21 Level: Double-A-Triple-A

A first-rounder in 2006, Marrero has one thing going for him: power. His step-in-the-bucket, clean-and-jerk approach doesn't lead to a high contact rate or a great amount of walks. He has worked to improve, but Marrero still has holes in his righthanded swing and will never have much athleticism. The 6-3, 220-pounder plays at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, so he needs big-time production to be provide any value. Marrero hit a solid .287/.360/.454 in High A last year and has legitimate major league power, but Double-A might test his limits next year.

Jeff Kobernus, 2B

Age: 21 Level: Short-Season-High A

Kobernus played the hot corner his first two seasons at Cal, but he had enough speed and athleticism to transition to second base in his draft year. The Nationals grabbed him in the 2nd round. Kobernus has a knack for making contact and could prove to be a strong line-drive hitter. He has modest power. The 6-2, 210-pounder also has the tools to stick at second. Kobernus has yet to show he can draw walks on a consistent basis. He's a good college draftee, but I'm willing to wait before fully buying into him.

The Nationals have some more decent prospects, but to be honest they aren't interesting enough for me to want to write about them. Check out Baseball America and Minor League Ball for more.

Others: RHPs A.J. Morris, Luis Atilano, and Brad Meyers; OFs Destin Hood, J.R. Higley, and Michael Burgess; LHP Aaron Thompson

Impact Talent: A-

Farm System Depth: C-

2010 Breakout Prospect

Eury Perez, of

Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Low A

Perez's stateside debut last year was terrific. The teenager from the Dominican Republic compiled a .381/.443/.503 line with just 20 Ks. Reports on his defense are positive as well, making experience one of the only things holding him back. Perez will require several more years in the minors, as he has yet to face much advanced pitching. His walk rate in a small sample (205 PAs) was 7.3%. All things considered, he's a Washington prospect worth getting excited about. Perez could reach Low A Hagerstown next year, and he's a bright spot for the Nats.

That wraps up my look at each team's minor league system. Check out how I stack up the teams against one another, and watch for college coverage in coming days!

State of the System: Toronto Blue Jays

2010-02-07T03:34:00.001-06:00

Quick Look

The Blue Jays have a wealth of decent pitching at the major league level, as well as potent young hitters like Travis Snider and Adam Lind. Toronto's disastrous 2009 draft, possibly the worst effort in the game, didn't help the organization's future prospects at all. Another problem is that they play in the AL East. The Roy Halladay deal greatly boosted the organizational talent, netting TBJ three of the top five players on this list and giving them some actual potential impact players.

Top Prospects

Brett Wallace, 3B/1B

Age: 23 Level: Triple-A-MLB

Wallace's polished lefthanded bat has always been his calling card. He uses a quiet stance and is able to hit fastballs and offspeed offerings alike. A former Pac-10 Triple Crown winner and owner of a .305/.384/.475 career minor league line, Wallace has strong pitch recognition and above-average power. I was disappointed that his walk rate was only 7.8% in 2009, however. The 6-1, 245-pounder has a thick lower half and below-average athleticism. He won't stick at third base in the long term. He also strikes out a fair amount (19.3%). Wallace's hitting prowess, though perhaps exaggerated sometimes, makes him an excellent bet to be an average big leaguer or better. His offense might even be good enough to make him a star.

Kyle Drabek, rhp

Age: 22 Level: Double-A-MLB

Drabek, the son of former big league Cy Young winner Doug, was the 18th overall pick in 2006. His pure stuff was among the best in the draft, but his volatile makeup concerned many a team. Drabek underwent Tommy John surgery in 2007, causing him to miss about a year, and he seems to have calmed his demeanor somewhat since then. Drabek's pitching is what has people talking. The 6-0, 185-pounder has an 88-93 mph fastball and a filthy curveball. Drabek's control has also improved and he walked only 7.6% of batters (while fanning 22.9%) in 2009. He is very athletic and competive. His changeup needs improvement for him to stick in the rotation. Drabek's command is also not quite there. He is ready for Triple-A, and Drabek a few refinements away from being a quality mid-rotation hurler. He could also be the next Tom Gordon in a bullpen role.

Zach Stewart, rhp

Age: 23 Level: Triple-A-MLB

Stewart has enjoyed an excellent two-year professional career (2.70 FIP), and became one of the Blue Jays' best prospects when he came over in the Scott Rolen trade. Stewart's bread and butter is his 92-94 mph sinker. The Texas Tech product rode the pitch to a 2.0 GO/AO ratio in 2009. Stewart also possesses a sharp slider and a changeup. The latter has improved, but he may still end up in the bullpen. (He worked as both a starter and reliever last season.) Stewart is able to generate enough swings and misses, but he can sharpen his command. Optimists think he's a #2-3 starter, while others think his heater is his only reliable pitch and will send him to the bullpen. Almost ready for Toronto, Stewart will return to Triple-A and to the starting rotation.

Chad Jenkins, rhp

Age: 22 Level: none-High A

The 20th overall selection in last year's draft, Jenkins signed for $1.359 million. The Kennesaw State product combines both stuff and pitchability. Jenkins's fastball sits around 90-94 mph. His slider and changeup are solid pitches, and the burly 6-4, 235 righthander throws strikes with regularity. There are no glaring weaknesses for Jenkins. He needs to stay on top of his conditioning and refine his secondary pitches. He'll move quickly, and could be a #3 starter or better.

Travis d'Arnaud, c

Age: 21 Level: Low A-High A

The Blue Jays acquired d'Arnaud from the Phillies in the Roy Halladay deal. The 2007 supplemental-rounder is one of the better catching prospects in the minors. D'Arnaud was regarded as a stout defender in high school, but while he has an above-average arm and good hands, he wasn't great defensively in 2009. I think he'll ultimately be fine behind the plate, but he has room for improvement. D'Arnaud didn't have a standout offensive campaign either last year, going .255/.319/.419 with a 7.6 BB%. He has gap power and doesn't whiff excessively, though, so he could develop into an above-average hitter for a catcher. D'Arnaud is a pronounced flyball hitter. He will advance to High A in 2010, and the season could help decide if he or his brother Chase, a Pirates farmhand, is the better prospect. Travis needs to improve, but he has the all-around tools to grow into a starting MLB catcher.

J.P. Arencibia, c

Age: 24 Level: Triple-A-MLB

Arencibia, a former superstar at Tennessee, has two big league skills: plus power and solid defense. He also has good makeup. He is undermined, however, by a lack of plate discipline. Arencibia's career BB-K ratio is a grotesque 58-271 (4.5% and 21.1%, respectively). The 6-0, 215-pounder socked 54 extra-base hits and had a .208 IsoP in Triple-A last season, but his OBP was an unacceptable .284. His approach is simply too aggressive and his swing too long. Arencibia, a 1st-round pick in 2007, needs to be more patient for his potent bat to play. The tools are there, and Arencibia will attempt to put them together during a repeat of Triple-A this year.

Brad Mills, lhp

Age: 24 Level: MLB

Mills is a classic finesse lefty. The 2007 4th-rounder from Arizona frequently works off his curveball and plus changeup. He is deceptive and mixes his pitches well. Mills was torn apart in a 14-inning stint with Toronto last season, though, and his stuff may not be good enough to fool hitters at the highest level. His FIP has increased at every level (2.03 in Short-Season, 3.80 in Triple-A, 9.88 in the majors). Mills's fastball tops out at 90 mph, and his 5-11 frame doesn't add any intimidation either. He is an excellent bet to have a major league career, but Mills needs pinpoint command to be more than a thumbing staff-filler.

David Cooper, 1B

Age: 23 Level: Double-A-Triple-A

Cooper earned the tag of "sweet-swinging first baseman" during his time in college. The California native was selected 17th overall in the 2008 draft, and he'd ideally be a high-average, line-drive hitter. Cooper struggled in his first full pro season, however, hitting .258/.340/.389 in Double-A. Cooper's hand-eye coordination and gap power are above-average, but he does not have the home run power of a typical first baseman. The 6-0, 200-pounder is anchored to that position because he is too slow and unathletic to play the outfield. I liked Cooper in college, but now I'm not sure if there's enough to project him as more than a fringe-average big leaguer.

Henderson Alvarez, rhp
Age: 19 Level: Low A-High A
Alvarez came out of nowhere to have a terrific 2009 season. The young Venezuelan righty posted a 2.43 FIP in Low A, while walking a mere 3.7% of opposing batters. Alvarez's fastball isn't overpowering, coming in around 90 mph, but his diving changeup is a weapon. He served up only one home run in 124 IP last year. Alvarez's breaking ball needs to show improvement for him to remain the rotation. He has proven to be a prolific zone-pounder, but he isn't nasty enough to consistently miss bats. (His K rate in 2009 was 17.9%.) Ticketed for the generous Florida State League, Alvarez looks like a #4 starter.

Jake Marisnick, of

Age: 18 Level: none-Low A

Marisnick was drafted on upside. Toronto nabbed the California prepster in the 3rd round last year and signed him for $1 million. Marisnick has an explosive 6-4, 200-pound frame and combination of speed and power. A potential center fielder or right fielder, Marisnick also has a strong arm. His hitting mechanics, however, are questioned, and teams would have been willing to draft him much higher if they thought he had a better chance of hitting. The athletic Marisnick will require several years and thousands of plate appearances in the minors, but the payoff could be very large.

Others: RHPs Danny Farquhar, Josh Roenicke, and Andrew Liebel; LHPs Luis Perez and Tim Collins; SS Justin Jackson; 3B Kevin Ahrens

Impact Talent: C-

Farm System Depth: C

2010 Breakout Prospect

Carlos Perez, c

Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Short-Season

Perez controls the zone well for a teenager, having compiled more walks than strikeouts as a pro. Besides his batting eye, he also has a solid feel for hitting (.291/.364/.433 in the GCL last season). Behind the plate, he needs to clean up his footwork, blocking, etc., but has a strong arm and the time to develop into a plus defender. He is very young, but Perez shows the ability to be an all-around catcher. He could be in the New York-Penn or the Midwest League this season.

Minnesota Twins 2010 Prospect Handbook

2010-02-05T23:56:00.001-06:00

I was fortunate enough to get a chance to check out an initial copy of the Minnesota Twins 2010 Prospect Handbook, which was compiled by Seth Stohs of SethSpeaks.net. This product is unique--while it contains the usual scouting reports and stats, Stohs went the extra mile and profiled a whopping 150 prospects. Any Twins prospect with a fighting chance (from Allan De San Miguel to In Kyun Kang to Chris Cates) has a write-up.

The book is a gold mine for Minnesota diehards, but it is also of general interest for prospectors. As a bonus, it takes a look at MiLB league averages, Twins' international and Dominican Summer League prospects, Twins in the Arizona Fall League, and alternate rankings of Minnesota's prospects. Stohs also includes a few player interviews. This product took hours of hard work and the plethora of player profiles will particularly interest hardcore Twins fans. The handbook is available for pre-order here.

State of the System: Texas Rangers

2010-02-03T23:41:00.004-06:00

Quick Look

The reigning #1 system in baseball, the Rangers' youth movement is underway. They've incorporated youngsters like Elvis Andrus, Derek Holland, Neftali Feliz, and Tommy Hunter into the fold, and their young talent should allow them to compete with anyone in the future.

Top Prospects

Justin Smoak, 1B

Age: 23 Level: Triple-A-MLB

Smoak, a 2008 1st-rounder, is the best first-base prospect in the minor leagues. The 6-4, 220-pounder has excellent power and a good idea at the plate. He put up a .328/.449/.481 line in Double-A in 2009 before stumbling in Triple-A. (His wOBA dropped from .427 to .336, and his K rate rose from 15.4% to 18.9%.) Much of that can be attributed to injury, however. He has strong plate discipline and line-drive rates, and I expect him to be an outstanding run producer in the big leagues. Smoak, who hails from the same South Carolina high school as Orioles stud-in-the-making Matt Wieters, is an above-average defensive first baseman, but his speed and athleticism are very limited. He needs some more at-bats in the minors, but Smoak has the potential to bounce back and be a switch-hitting Justin Morneau-type.

Neftali Feliz, rhp

Age: 21 Level: MLB

A part of the lopsided Mark Teixeira trade with the Braves in 2007, Feliz has one of the best pure arms on the planet. He generates consistent low- to mid-90s velocity from an easy motion, and he sometimes touches triple digits. His breaking ball and changeup need more consistency, but they are promising. Feliz has posted a 28.8 K% in his career, along with a 10.5 BB%. He needs to polish his command and put the finishing touches on his secondary stuff. The 6-3, 180-pounder also has never worked a 130+ IP campaign. He reached the majors and was unhittable in 30 relief innings last season, showing that he could be a dominating closer in short order, but Feliz has even greater upside at the front of the rotation. Keying in on his #1 stuff, the Rangers will continue to develop him in that role.

Martin Perez, lhp

Age: 18 Level: Double-A-Triple-A

His stuff is above-average, but Perez is also lauded for how polished he is for his age. The 6-0 Venezuelan posted a 2.46 FIP and 26.9 K% in Low A in 2009. He also induced a healthy amount of ground balls, and the teenager received a Double-A cameo at the end of the year. Perez works off a low-90s fastball that tops out at 95 mph. He has greatly improved the quality of his changeup, and he owns a late-breaking curveball. The primary drawback is that Perez is exceedingly young and his durability has yet to be tested. (His delivery, however, looks easy and clean.) His command naturally isn't a finished product. Perez will throw a full season in Double-A in 2010 and try to live up to his Johan Santana comparisons. He is one of the finest lefty prospects in the game and rounds out Texas's amazing prospect trifecta.

Tanner Scheppers, rhp

Age: 23 Level: none-Double-A

Scheppers is an extremely unique prospect. The erstwhile shortstop shifted to the mound at Fresno State to take advantage of his electric arm, then had a severe shoulder injury that caused him to miss the Bulldogs' unbelievable run to the College World Series title in 2008. Scheppers opted not to sign with the Pirates that year, but got $1.25 million from Texas in 2009. The 6-4, 200-pounder's heater ranges anywhere from the low-90s to 99 mph. His curveball is devastating, though inconsistent. The downside is Scheppers is wild and has no changeup to speak of. His delivery and injury history also point him toward the bullpen. He figures to go straight to Double-A in 2010. My best conjecture is that he'll be a late-inning reliever.

Danny Gutierrez, rhp

Age: 22 Level: Double-A-Triple-A

Gutierrez hasn't seized his potential yet due to some injuries and run-ins with the law. The Royals, fed up with his antics, essentially gave up the 6-1 righty in September. Gutierrez showed in the Arizona Fall League, though, that he has excellent upside. The California native throws a 91-95 mph fastball and a nasty, nose-to-toes curveball. He needs a better changeup to stay in the rotation. Gutierrez is about a year away from the MLB. If he gets his act together, he'll be a key cog in the Rangers' pitching staff.

Robbie Ross, lhp

Age: 20 Level: Short-Season-Low A

Ross was handled with kid gloves last year. The 20-year-old pitched 74 innings in the Northwest League after being taken in the supplemental round out of high school. Ross handled his competition easily, putting up a 3.12 FIP, 3.2 GO/AO, 24.1 K%, and 5.4 BB%. Though he is only 5-11, Ross has a quality arsenal. The Kentucky native throws a low-90s fastball, low-80s slider, and a changeup. Some are concerned with his small stature, and his seconary pitches are works in progress. Ready for Low A, Ross offers mid-rotation potential.

Max Ramirez, c/1B

Age: 25 Level: MLB

The 2009 season was a lost year for Ramirez; he parlayed a poor '08 MLB debut into a .234/.323/.336 showing over 320 PAs in Triple-A. Ramirez is still capable of being a solid big leaguer, though. The Venezuela native is a gifted, patient righthanded hitter who can pepper the gaps. He has enough power to potentially hit 15-20 home runs a season. He does strike out a fair amount (21.2% MiLB career). Ramirez masquerades as a catcher, but he lacks athleticism and is not a strong receiver. He is very slow. Ramirez needs to shake off last season and regain his stroke in order to hit enough to be an average big league 1B.

Robbie Erlin, lhp

Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Low A

If not for his small build (5-11, 170), Erlin might have been in 1st-round consideration. The California native ended up going in the 3rd round. Erlin throws a solid 89-91 mph fastball and a good curveball. His changeup shows positive signs, but needs work. He pounds the zone and has advanced command for a high school product. His delivery is sound, and he is regarded as having excellent makeup. Erlin could twirl in the Low A South Atlantic League in 2010, and he has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter.

Jurickson Profar, ss

Age: 16 Level: none-Rookie

Profar received a $1.55 million signing bonus coming out of Curacao last summer. The Rangers liken him to Elvis Andrus in some ways. Defensively, Profar's good hands and plus arm stand out (he touches the low-90s off the mound). The switch-hitter has some feel for hitting for contact. His speed is average. Profar's savvy and instincts are considered advanced for his age. He is thin (around 5-11, 165) and doesn't have overwhelming offensive tools. Profar does not turn 17 for another two weeks, and he is far away from the majors. A better gauge of his potential will come after he plays the 2010 slate stateside.

Kasey Kiker, lhp

Age: 22 Level: Double-A-Triple-A

A 2006 1st-rounder, Kiker has lost a lot of his shine. He still shows enough upside to be interesting, though. Kiker has a good fastball in the low-90s and likes to challenge batters. His 80 mph changeup grades out as his top secondary offering, ahead of his inconsistent breaking ball. He hands out far too many free passes, though. (Kiker's walk rate was 11.8% in 2009.) He is primarily a flyball pitcher and Kiker might eventually head to the bullpen. At just 5-10, 170, his stature does nothing to assuage that concern. Kiker is a lefty with stuff that misses bats, but I don't think he'll be a true difference-maker. He'll spend 2010 in Triple-A.

Others: RHPs Wilfredo Boscan, Guillermo Moscoso, Blake Beavan, Omar Poveda, and Michael Main

Impact Talent: A+

Farm System Depth: B-

2010 Breakout Prospects

Braden Tullis, rhp

Age: 20 Level: Short-Season-High A

Tullis, the Rangers' 8th-round pick from 2009, hails from Idaho and attended Skagit Valley CC in Washington. He is one of my favorite sleepers. Tullis's 88-91 mph fastball has sink, and his changeup and slider are both decent with room for improvement. The 6-2, 200-pounder is very athletic. He throws strikes and works down in the zone. He had a strong pro debut, with a 2.39 FIP, 21.8 K%, 6.8 BB%, and 2.6 GO/AO. Tullis could jump onto the radar with a steady performance in A-ball in 2010.

Joe Wieland, rhp

Age: 20 Level: Low A-High A

Wieland was a 2008 4th-rounder from a Nevada high school. I really liked the pick at the time (he controls a solid 3-pitch mix), but Wieland fell off the map after his 2009 season in Low A. He surrendered 102 hits in 83 IP and had a 5.30 ERA. Not much hope, right? Wrong. Wieland was hurt by a .371 BABIP and a 52.8 LOB%. His 3.59 FIP looks dramatically better than his ERA. The 6-3, 175-pounder didn't light it up in his first full season, but it's way too early to toss him on the prospect scrap heap. Although Wieland figures to be shipped to the unforgiving Cal League in 2010, I'm anticipating a solid campaign.

State of the System: Tampa Bay Rays

2010-01-27T18:27:00.002-06:00

Quick Look

As many expected, the Rays took a slight step back in 2009. They are still in excellent position for the future, though. Tampa Bay has a strong rotation comprised solely of 20-somethings and young positional talent as well. They are in the toughest division in baseball, but the Rays will be in the thick of things for the foreseeable future. Their top 3 prospects make up one of the best triumvirates in baseball, and their system overall remains stocked. To be fair, I do think there is a significant drop after #5.

Top Prospects

Desmond Jennings, of

Age: 23 Level: Triple-A-MLB

Jennings is an elite prospect, arguably one of the top three in baseball. A premium athlete with tools similar to those of Andrew McCutchen, Jennings offers both upside and aptitude. At the plate, he is patient (11.6 BB% in 2009) and makes consistent contact. The 6-2, 180-pounder also has bat speed and more power than a typical tablesetter, but he hits a lot of ground balls and his primary offensive value will come from getting on base. He is a well above-average runner who stole 52 bases in 59 attempts last season. Jennings, a former football player at Itawamba CC, is also a standout defensive center fielder. His jumps need fine-tuning and his arm is mediocre, but his athleticism and range promise excellent potential long-term. Jennings's track record matches his tools as well. He has compiled a .305/.391/.457 career line and thrived at the upper levels of the minors. One of the only questions observers have with Jennings is his durability. He has missed time with knee, back, and shoulder injuries. Jennings may need some more reps, but he will likely develop into a star in the MLB.

Wade Davis, rhp

Age: 24 Level: MLB

Davis has been on the prospect radar seemingly forever; he's finally primed to make good on his potential. Davis, a 2004 draftee from a Florida high school, is a classic power pitcher. His lively fastball sits at 92-94 mph and his hard curveball has sharp, late bite. Davis aggressively challenges batters. He could stand to induce more ground balls, but he compensates with ample strikeouts. His strong 6-5, 220-pound frame is useful for logging a lot of innings. Detractors point out Davis's struggles to master a consistent third pitch. He tinkers with a changeup and cutter. His command wavers and he issues too many free passes. Add it all up and you have a big league-ready mid-rotation workhorse with the potential to be much more.

Jeremy Hellickson, rhp

Age: 22 Level: Triple-A-MLB

There are a wide range of opinions on Hellickson. Frankie Piliere of MLB Fanhouse thinks he is the game's 10th-best prospect, while Project Prospect Senior Scout/pitching guru Lincoln Hamilton believes his mechanics have him headed for an injury-plagued career. (For what it's worth, Hellickson's motion looks silky smooth to me.) Hellickson's track record of success is not up for debate; the Iowa native has posted a sub-3.00 FIP and a 27.7 K% in pro ball. He has simply been a batter's nightmare since Tampa Bay drafted him in 2005. Hellickson's 2009 season was his finest to date, as he decimated the upper minors to the tune of a 2.77 FIP and a 29.6 K%.

Hellickson is notable for his command and feel for pitching, but his stuff isn't shabby. He paints the corners with his 90-93 mph fastball, his high-70s curveball is an effective pitch, and his deceptive changeup improved last season to the point where it's a plus offering. He missed two months with a shoulder sprain this year, and his slight 6-0 build adds credence to the notion that durability will be an issue. Hellickson, who doubled as a shortstop in high school, does have good athletic ability and repeats his delivery. An optimistic projection would peg him as a future #2 starter, but he will have to bide his time in Triple-A while he waits for an opening in the Rays' MLB rotation. It may require a trade for him to receive an opportunity.

Reid Brignac, ss

Age: 24 Level: MLB

Brignac was an offensive-oriented player early in his career, but the Louisiana native has worked hard and is now a very steady shortstop. He was deemed the top gloveman among International League shortstops in Baseball America's 2009 Best Tools Survey. Brignac, a 6-3, 180-pound lefthanded hitter, also has above-average power for a middle infielder. His production diminished during his two seasons in Triple-A, but the Rays still envision him being an solid offensive force. Brignac is too aggressive at the dish, however, with 2.6 career whiffs for every walk. He has a lot of pre-swing hand movement as well. The 2004 draftee's career line is .281/.337/.449. An average runner, Brignac avoids ground balls while hitting a bevy of line drives and fly balls. (Examine his batted ball tendencies here). With 100 MLB PAs to his credit, Brignac is ready to occupy a backup role for Tampa Bay this year. His minimal patience will likely preclude him from becoming a star, but Brignac will be a useful player.

Matt Moore, lhp

Age: 20 Level: Low A-High A

A prolific strikeout artist, Moore is a popular pick to have a breakout 2010 campaign. Moore, a 6-2, 205-pounder drafted in 2007, flashed big-time upside in Low A in 2009, and another step forward could place him among the game's elite prospects. Moore's fastball peaks in the mid-90s and sits at 89-92 mph. His late-breaking curveball buckles knees and misses bats. Moore also incorporates a changeup, perhaps a future plus pitch. The New Mexico native paced the MiLB in Ks last season, and his career rate is an eye-popping 33.7%. Moore has a significant way to go nonetheless. He has bouts with his command and amasses enormous walk totals. Moore improved as the 2009 season progressed, but he still posted a 13.4 BB%. A potentially dominating MLB starter, Moore needs polish. He is ready to advance to the High A Florida State League.

Nick Barnese, rhp
Age: 21 Level: Low A-High A
Barnese's fastball checks in at 89-92 mph and touches 93-94. The California native is confident and goes after batters. Barnese limited his opponents to just 3 homers and recorded a 3.43 FIP last year, though his strikeout (19.7%) and walk (8.0%) rates weren't spectacular. The athletic 6-2, 170-pounder needs to hone his offspeed stuff, but both his breaking ball and changeup show plus potential. He could stand to command and mix his pitches more effectively. In short, a few more refinements will enable Barnese to make good on his mid-rotation potential. He's scheduled to move up to High A this season.

Alexander Torres, lhp
Age: 22 Level: Double-A-Triple-A
A piece in last season's Scott Kazmir trade, Torres combined for a 3.55 FIP between his two organizations. On the down side, his wildness showed with a 12.9 BB%. Torres is a confident, aggressive pitcher, but that many walks will catch up to him. His slight 5-10 frame also makes the Venezuela native a bullpen candidate. Despite those warts, I hold out hope. Torres has a low-90s fastball and a pair of sharp breaking balls, and he parlayed those offerings into a terrific 23.7 K% and 2.5 GO/AO last season. His pure arsenal and those stats alone make him an enticing prospect. Torres is closer to the majors than Barnese, but his control and chances of remaining in the rotation are poorer.

Luke Bailey, c
Age: 18 Level: none-Low A
Bailey received a $750,00 signing bonus as a 4th-rounder in the most recent draft. The Georgia high school product was slated to go even higher (he's arguably a 1st-round talent), but he blew out his elbow and had Tommy John surgery a few months before the draft. Provided he recovers fine, Bailey could be a steal. Offensively, Bailey has both hitting ability and power potential. He had a down senior year, but still projects as a strong contributor, particularly for a catcher. The 6-0, 200-pounder is a stout defender behind the plate, with a strong arm and solid hands and footwork. Bailey will need several years to develop, but he has the tools and skills to be an above-average starting catcher.

Tim Beckham, ss
Age: 19 Level: Low A-High A
I truly wonder what people's perceptions of Beckham would be if the Georgia native hadn't been the #1 overall pick in the '08 draft. Beckham had a respectable season for a teenager in the South Atlantic League (he hit .275/.328/.389), but I think he is currently overrated. Beckham was touted around draft time as an athletic shortstop who would stay at the position, play strong defense, and develop into an above-average hitter. He came out in 2009 with a thicker lower half, however, and he seems to have lost some athleticism. Beckham's range diminished, and scouts think he might have to change positions. (And, for what it's worth, he committed 43 errors last season.)
I'm not convinced Beckham will hit enough to be of use at his possible landing spots (2B, 3B, OF). Aside from the pedestrian line in his first full season, he struck out too often (21.6 K%) and didn't draw enough walks (6.3 BB%). Beckham has plus bat speed and uses the opposite field well, but I didn't see enough offensive potential to get excited when I saw him play in July. Delving into his 2009 splits, there are at least a few positive signs. Though southpaws befuddled him, Beckham seemed to suppressed by his home stadium. He hit .328/.376/.494 on the road (albeit aided by a high BABIP) compared to .226/.282/.292 at home. Perhaps some of his low numbers resulted from a lackadaisical attitude also: Beckham hit .243/.299/.399 when his team had a lead, and notched it up to .301/.344/.416 when the Hot Rods were losing. Beckham won't come close to providing the most MLB value out of the pool of players from his draft class, but he's a solid prospect.

Alexander Colome, rhp
Age: 21 Level: Short-Season-Low A
Colome's fastball ranges from 92-97 mph. The nephew of big league hurler Jesus, Alexander also owns a hard curveball and is working on a changeup to combat lefties. Colome ripped through the New York-Penn League in 2009, posting a 2.19 FIP and 31.0 K%. He made control gains as well, but it is still his biggest weakness (10.6 BB%). The lightning-armed Dominican has ace upside, but also a lot of flameout potential.

Kyle Lobstein, lhp
Age: 20 Level: Short-Season-Low A
Armed with a high-80s fastball and excellent pitchability, Lobstein is not a typical high school product. Scouts aren't enamored with his velocity or nonchalant attitude on the mound (which may just be poise), but I'm fairly optimistic about the Arizona native. Lobstein posted a 2.95 FIP and 74-23 K-BB ratio over 73 IP (300 BF) last season in the New York-Penn League. He showed a solid curveball and changeup, along with his trademark control and pitching smarts. I'm not making a comparison here, but I will posit that Mark Buehrle and others prove not everyone needs premium heat. Lobstein's 6-3, 200-pound frame might mean he'll be able to add a few ticks to his fastball, but he'll never be a hard thrower. The '08 supplemental-rounder lacks knockout stuff (and a "killer instinct", some think), but has a shot to be a quality mid-rotation starter.

Others: RHPs Jason McEachern and Alex Cobb; LHP Jake McGee; OFs Todd Glaesmann and Fernando Perez; SS Hector Guevara; 3B Matt Sweeney

Impact Talent: A

Farm System Depth: B+

2010 Breakout Prospect

Wilking Rodriguez, rhp

Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Short-Season

The Rays are extremely conservative with their pitching prospects, so Rodriguez may not even reach full-season ball until 2011. His power repertoire (low- to mid-90s fastball and sharp curveball), however, makes him a candidate to breeze by low-level competition--and shoot up prospect lists. Interestingly, Rodriguez handled lefthanders much better than righthanders last season. Particularly odd is that GO/AO ratio, which was 3.40 versus lefties and 0.69 against righthanders. Rodriguez isn't imposing on the mound (6-1, 160), but the native of Venezuela is praised for his mechanics and poise. He had a successful season last year, putting up a 3.25 FIP and 4.3 K-BB ratio in his first year in the U.S. Rodriguez will work on his changeup in 2010.

State of the System: Seattle Mariners

2010-01-22T17:30:00.014-06:00

Quick Look

Even after surrendering three prospects to acquire Cliff Lee, I like Seattle's system. The Mariners lack blue-chip prospects after their top two, but they have a nice mix of players after that who look like future contributors. GM Jack Zduriencik has done an excellent job in his year at the helm, reshaping the organization and arguably positioning the M's to be the team to beat in the AL West in 2010.

Top Prospects

Dustin Ackley, of

Age: 21 Level: none-Triple-A

Ackley rolls out of bed hitting line drives. The 2009 2nd overall pick hit over .400 every year in college, set a College World Series record for hits, and held his own against advanced pitching in the Arizona Fall League straight out of college. Ackley has strong pitch-recognition skills and a sweet lefthanded stroke designed for contact. He goes berserk when he gets in a groove. The 6-1, 185-pounder launched 22 home runs in his last season at North Carolina (and may have the pop to hit 10-15 a year at the major league level), but power is not Ackley's game. He played 1st base in college because of an arm injury, but will play the outfield as a pro. Ackley has plus speed and solid athleticism that should translate well there. He played the left side of the infield in high school, and some would like to try him at 2nd base, but he believes he'll wind up an outfielder. Ackley's value would be highest if he sticks in center, but his polished bat will be good enough to make him an above-average big leaguer anywhere. He could rise as quickly as White Sox infielder Gordon Beckham did.

Michael Saunders, of

Age: 23 Level: MLB

Saunders struggled in his first taste of the majors in 2009 (.221/.258/.279), but the Canada native still offers an intriguing blend of upside and polish. Saunders throws and runs well enough to play all three outfield positions. He flashed excellent defensive skills in his time in left field in Seattle. At 6-4, 210, the lefty batter has some raw power at the plate. He focuses getting on base, though, and his career high in home runs is 15. His career MiLB line is a maintainable .279/.364/.452. He is sound fundamentally, and can bunt and steal some bases. Saunders does fan often (24.2 K% in the minors), a byproduct of him working deep counts. Having already reached the big leagues, Saunders is now primed to develop into an above-average starting outfielder.

Nick Franklin, ss

Age: 18 Level: Short-Season-Low A

Franklin was taken in the 1st round of the '09 draft. He looked good in his pro debut and is ready to start 2010 in a full-season league. Franklin has a compact swing that allows him to hit for contact. The switch-hitter probably won't be a power threat, particularly with wood. The Florida native does project to stay up the middle, thanks to his range, hands, and instincts. He won over scouts with his performance during showcases last year, and he has speed and athleticism to go along with his gamer mentality. Some think his tools aren't overwhelming enough, but I buy into Franklin as a legitimate shortstop prospect with exciting potential.

Adam Moore, c

Age: 25 Level: MLB

An offensive-minded 6th-rounder coming out of Texas-Arlington in 2006, Moore has worked hard to make himself a more complete backstop. He steadily climbed the ladder and reached Seattle for a 24 PA cameo last year. Moore has some pop from the right side and is an above-average hitter for a catcher. He doesn't walk or strike out excessively. The 6-3, 220-pounder has an above-average arm and is a steady receiver and blocker. He lacks agility and speed, but is fine for a catcher. Moore is essentially maxed out, but he has the tools to be a solid all-around MLB catcher starting this season.

Michael Pineda, rhp

Age: 21 Level: High A-Double-A

A Dominican righty who steamrolled the Midwest League in 2008, Pineda was limited to 47 IP in 2009 because of lingering elbow issues. Pineda has fine command of a low-90s fastball and an advanced changeup. He has bulked up and his 6-5, 250 frame bodes well for durability. The problem is that his arm action is awkward and is believed to be the root of his elbow problems. Pineda is still young, but he has yet to develop a consistent breaking ball. Seattle may send him back to High A or challenge him in Double-A (I'd choose the latter). Before he reaches his high ceiling, Pineda needs to iron out his delivery, but he is one good season away from becoming one of the better pitching prospects in the game.

Alex Liddi, 3B

Age: 21 Level: High A-Double-A

Liddi, a rare Italian prospect, stumbled to a .315 wOBA as a teenager in Low A for two years. Freed from the MWL doldrums and released into the Cal League in 2009, Liddi went .345/.411/.594 with 23 homers. I remain skeptical how much of his breakout year can be attributed to pure improvement rather than the hitter's havens in which he played, but Liddi is certainly a prospect. The 6-4, 176-pounder is starting to tap into his power and some believe he will produce enough to profile at third. He likes to take pitches the other way. Liddi does, however, have an unorthodox hitting style, and he whiffs often (23.8 career K%). Despite a big frame, he is regarded as a strong defender at the hot corner. Double-A will be a strong barometer of Liddi's ultimate potential.

Carlos Triunfel, inf

Age: 19 Level: Double-A-Triple-A

Triunfel signed for $1.3 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2006. The 5-11, 205-pounder proceeded to progress rapidly, reaching High A at age 17. He lost time in 2009, however, as a fractured fibula truncated his season to 44 PAs. Triunfel's feel for hitting is still well ahead of the curve. He has strong hand-eye coordination and the bat speed to be an excellent contact hitter. Triunfel is an impatient hitter, though, with a 5.2% career walk rate. He has decent hands and a cannon arm, but his stocky frame and substandard range will push him to second or third base. Triunfel has very little present power, and does not profile well at the latter. He'll return to Double-A as a 20-year-old in 2010 in need of a broader offensive toolset.

Gabriel Noriega, ss

Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Low A

Gifted with plus range, hands, and infield actions, Noriega makes all the plays at short and gives observers reason to believe he will play shortstop in the big leagues. The native of Venezuela has some contact ability (and hit .311/.360/.456 in the Appalachian League at age 18), but he has work to do offensively. Noriega, a righthander, strikes out too often (26.2 K%) and needs to focus on getting on base. The 6-2, 170-pounder is an average runner. Likely ticketed for Low A, Noriega will be a MLBer if he hits.

Shawn Kelley, rhp

Age: 25 Level: MLB

Back in 2007, when Vanderbilt hosted the Nashville Regioanl, the #1 Commodores faced 4-seed Austin Peay in the opener. Conventional wisdom pegged the Governors as a pushover, but Vandy coach Tim Corbin opted to start his ace David Price to be safe. The move payed off, as Kelley kept his team neck-and-neck with a brilliant, 10-inning performance. Vanderbilt prevailed in a 2-1 epic, but Kelley put his name on the map.

Kelley was drafted in the 13th round that summer, and made it to Seattle as a reliever in 2009. The 6-2, 215-pounder pounds the zone with a 93 mph fastball and a plus slider. He doesn't keep the ball on the ground enough, but he posts strong strikeout rates and has good enough stuff to be a 7th- or 8th-inning reliever in the short-term and the long-term.

Steven Baron, c

Age: 19 Level: Rookie-Low A

Baron stood out as a defense-oriented high school catcher last spring. The Miami native was Seattle's supplemental 1st-round pick. Baron has a plus arm in addition to good footwork and soft hands. He may lack the strength to survive against pro pitchers, though. The 6-0, 195-pounder has holes in his swing and will never be confused with an offensive powerhouse. The Mariners are optimistic that he'll run into some homers and line drives, but Baron likely will not hit for a high average or post strong OBPs. The track record with defense-first prep catchers isn't great, but Baron shut down the running game in his pro debut and has the tools be at least a backup.

Others: RHP Daniel Cortes; LHP Mauricio Robles; OFs Greg Halman, Guillermo Pimentel, James Jones, and Ezequiel Carrera; 3Bs Mario Martinez and Matt Tuiasosopo; 1Bs Rich Poythress and Mike Carp

Impact Talent: C+

Farm System Depth: B

2010 Breakout Prospect

Julio Morban, of

Age: 17 Level: Rookie-Short-Season

A highly-touted Dominican amateur, Morban signed for $1.1 million in 2008 and got his first pro action in the Arizona League last summer. A shoulder sprain limited him to DH duty for much of the season. Morban held his own (with an encouraging .247 IsoP) and displayed a sweet lefthanded swing, but his control of the zone was nonexistent (7-49 BB-K in 165 PAs). Morban has decent athleticism and instincts (and a strong arm), so he might be able to stick in center, but his bat is his meal ticket in any case. Once he gets his feet under him and makes more adjustments, he could rocket up the Mariners' depth chart.

Michael Saunders foul ball from 2006

Oakland's Desme Quits Baseball

2010-01-22T12:04:00.004-06:00

Grant Desme, a 23-year-old outfielder coming off a strong season in the A's system, has apparently retired to go become a priest. That's the most shocking prospect news I've heard in a while. Desme swatted 31 homers and stole 40 bases between Low A and High A in 2009. The 2007 draftee from Cal Poly had major contact issues to address (26.8 K%), but he was still a decent prospect (I ranked him 7th in the organization).

The best takes on the situation: "Well, somebody's church softball team is gonna get WAY WAY better soon" --Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus. "I know he was hoping to get the call, but I don't think this is what the A's had in mind" --Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com.

Top 30 Prospects

2010-01-22T10:56:00.001-06:00

Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com and MiLB.com recently invited readers to submit their personal prospect rankings as a precursor to the release of Mayo's own list (which comes out next week). I was already in the process of compiling my list, so I jumped at the chance. The list is available here. I will release my final, extended version later in the spring, but this gives some insight into how I stack up the elite prospects. Let me know what you think!

State of the System: San Francisco Giants

2010-01-16T23:42:00.006-06:00

Quick Look

San Francisco was competitive at the major league level in 2009, mostly thanks to its farm system (which developed Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Pablo Sandoval, and others). The Giants have some of the best minor league talent in the game now, but they still haven't overcome their inability to develop hitters. We'll see if the next wave of prospects (including bats such as Buster Posey and Thomas Neal) can inject some thump into San Fran's punchless lineup and get them back to the playoffs. In any case, they are a team on the rise.

While I'm on the Giants, it's a good time to check out some Tim Lincecum photos. Here he is with short hair after he was drafted, and here he is now. Hey, nobody's arguing with the two Cy Young awards.

Top Prospects

Buster Posey, c

Age: 22 Level: MLB

After a .463/.566/.879 junior season at Florida State, Posey was the 5th overall pick in the 2008 draft. He further boosted his stock with an excellent 2009 campaign, which culminated in a September call-up. Posey shows an outstanding feel for hitting and mastery of the strike zone. Though he lacks big-time power and struggled in the Arizona Fall League, his advanced approach and innate contact ability will make him one of the top offensive catchers in the game in his prime. Posey, a former shortstop, is also athletic and has an above-average arm. The last piece of Posey's game that needs polish is his receiving. His skills behind the plate are fairly raw and he commits too many passed balls. With more reps, though, I think the 6-1, 205-pounder will be a plus defender. He was a benchwarmer last September, but if San Francisco doesn't sign a free agent to replace Bengie Molina, Posey will be handed the big league job this year. He might merely hold his own this year while adjusting to everyday duties at the highest level, but within a few years I expect Posey's on-base skills, defensive potential, and strong makeup to translate into annual All-Star appearances.

Madison Bumgarner, lhp

Age: 20 Level: MLB
Bumgarner is a unique prospect who elicits a variety of opinions. I'm in the camp who isn't sold on the 6-4, 215-pound lefty. Bumgarner went 10th overall in 2007 and has been absolutely dismantling minor league opponents ever since (273 IP, 23.9 K%, 5.1 BB%, 2.37 FIP). He made his major league debut at age 20. The North Carolina native fearlessly attacks batters with his fastball, a pitch he commands to all quadrants of the zone. After showing low- to mid-90s velocity in the past, however, Bumgarner dipped to around 88-90 mph in the second half of 2009. With a fringy slider and below-average changeup, it is imperative that Bumgarner regains his plus-plus fastball. His sweeping arm action adds deception but doesn't seem conducive to a good breaking ball. His athleticism and competitiveness are assets. A potential frontline starter or middling reliever, Bumgarner will likely head back to the minors to improve his secondary pitches and find his heat again.

Zack Wheeler, rhp

Age: 19 Level: none-Low A
A Georgia native, Wheeler was selected 6th overall in the 2009 draft. He has yet to begin his pro career, but Wheeler's huge upside is evident. The 6-3, 180-pounder is lanky and projectable, and his fastball already sits in the low-90s and creeps into the mid-90s. His sharp curveball flashes potential, as does his changeup. Like most prepsters, Wheeler is unproven and needs to hone his changeup and command. He will be in the South Atlantic League for the upcoming season.

Thomas Neal, of/1B

Age: 22 Level: High A-Triple-A
A shoulder injury in 2007 slowed Neal's development, but he returned to the outfield with a vengeance in 2009. The 6-1, 205-pounder hit .337/.431/.579 (arguably Cal League-inflated, but still impressive). Neal, a plus power hitter, improved his approach (17.5 K% and 11.6 BB% compared to pre-2009 rates of 21.1% and 8.2%, respectively) and became a more complete hitter. If his progression continues as planned, he could be a slugging #5 hitter in the Giants' lineup. Neal is also multi-dimensional, with a pretty good arm and solid defense. A below-average runner limited to an outfield corner or first base, though, he will be counted on to produce. Slated to play in the upper minors in 2010, his ETA is 2011.

Tommy Joseph, c

Age: 18 Level: none-Low A
Joseph rose on draft boards last spring as he moved behind the plate for his senior season. The Scottsdale product ended up getting picked in the 2nd round. Joseph has enormous power stemming from his natural strength. His forceful righthanded swing is geared for home runs, but most believe he's more than a slugger with no contact skills. Defensively, the hefty Joseph is below-average. His strong arm makes developing him as a catcher worthwhile, but he may face an eventual move to first base (especially with Buster Posey ahead of him) a la Paul Konerko and Carlos Delgado. Joseph will be intriguing to keep an eye on in his first pro season.

Dan Runzler, lhp

Age: 23 Level: MLB
Runzler had one of the best 2009 seasons of any pitcher, dominating at every rung from Low A to the MLB. In total, he compiled a mind-boggling 35.9 K% and a sub-1.00 RA. The 2007 draftee from UC Riverside has high-octane stuff (mid-90s fastball and hard curve) that plays well in the back of the bullpen. His command still needs work, but Runzler's 2009 performance ensures a major league spot for 2010.

Roger Kieschnick, of
Age: 22 Level: High A-Double-A
A big, strong lefthanded hitter, Kieschnick drives balls with authority to all fields (.236 IsoP). The 6-3, 215-pounder also moves well for his size, has the throwing arm to fit a corner outfield position, and always plays with 100% aggressiveness. Kieschnick's long swing and poor approach, however, make it difficult for him to control the strike zone. He racked up a 23.1 K% in 2009 to go along with just a 6.4 BB%. The Texas Tech product will have to prove he has enough contact and on-base skills to maintain his production against higher-level pitching. Similar to current Giants outfielder Nate Schierholtz in some ways, Kieschnick will move up to Double-A this season.

Joe Martinez, rhp
Age: 26 Level: MLB
More of a steady, finesse-type pitcher than a headline-grabbing flamethrower, Martinez lacks premium upside. The Boston College product pitched 30 innings in the majors in 2009, however, and has a very high floor. Martinez backs up his 90 mph fastball with a good, low-80s curveball and a decent changeup. He is durable and throws strikes at will. Soon to be 27, he is about maxed out, but could fit into a back-end starter role.

Waldis Joaquin, rhp
Age: 23 Level: MLB
Joaquin lacks command and control, but his live arm gives him the potential to be an impressive relief option. When he's on, the 6-2, 235-pounder throws a mid-90s fastball (that touches 98 mph) and a vicious slider. Nonetheless, his career walk rate is 10.2%, as the Dominican Republic native struggles to find the zone sometimes. Joaquin needs his results to catch up with his stuff, and he should get the chance to do that with an extended look in San Francisco's bullpen in 2010.

Francisco Peguero, of
Age: 21 Level: Low A-Double-A
Exciting and energetic, Peguero shows the potential to be a top-of-the-rotation sparkplug. The 6-0, 175-pound Dominican hit .353/.373/.443 in 2009 (split between Short-Season and Low A). Peguero has good speed and a strong arm in center field. He plays with flair. There are some major red flags with Peguero, however. His numbers were boosted by a BABIP over .400, he lacks the power to drive the ball, and he is chronically allergic to walks (2.4 BB%). He's an interesting follow, but Peguero has significant work to do with his patience and power.

Others: RHPs Matt Graham and Kevin Pucetas; SSs Brandon Crawford and Ehire Adrianza; LHP Clayton Tanner; 3Bs Jesus Guzman, Conor Gillaspie, and Matt Downs; 2B Nick Noonan; OFs Mike McBryde, Darren Ford, and Rafael Rodriguez

Impact Talent: A-

Farm System Depth: B-

2010 Breakout Prospect

Jason Stoffel, rhp

Age: 21 Level: Short-Season-Double-A

The 2008 Arizona Wildcats featured two fireballers (RHP Ryan Perry and LHP Daniel Schlereth) who were drafted in the 1st round that year. It was Stoffel (a sophomore), though, who was the team's closer. The 6-2, 220-pounder had an up-and-down junior season and only went in the 4th round, but he's a legitimate bounceback candidate. Stoffel's fastball parks in the low- to mid-90s and his slider flashes excellent bite. He goes after batters and could a fill a late-inning role in the MLB if he reverts to top form. Stoffel will rise quickly.

State of the System: San Diego Padres

2010-01-08T23:28:00.000-06:00

Quick Look

Though they are pretty much a joke at the major league level, I actually like the direction of the Padres' farm system. Starting to recover from years of injury-riddled, low-ceiling draftees, the Friars are replenishing with talented young players. San Diego recently hired former Boston execs Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod to be GM and VP/Assistant GM, respectively. By all accounts those are wise moves. I like the organization's prospects more than most. Though it's a significant undertaking that is several years away from fully paying off, San Diego's rebuilding project will be fun to watch.

Top Prospects

Jaff Decker, of

Age: 19 Level: Low A-Double-A

He's knocked for his bad body and limited projectability (listed at 5-10, 212), but Decker just flat-out hits. Gifted with a discerning eye and lefty stroke geared for doubles and some homers, Decker manhandled the Midwest League to the tune of .299/.442/.514 with 85 BBs in 2009. That kind of success for someone a year removed from high school is unheard in the MWL, and Decker is going to mash his way to the majors. His lack of athleticism is overstated, anyway. I'm driving the Decker bandwagon and fully expecting him to become the next Brian Giles.

James Darnell, 3B

Age: 22 Level: High A-Double-A

Darnell is another under-appreciated prospect; he is closer to former South Carolina teammate Justin Smoak than most think. Darnell has a feel for hitting and raw power, though his power numbers are suppressed because he doesn't achieve much loft. (For what it's worth, he did hit 20 HRs in 2009). The 6-2, 195-pounder has a balanced swing and a masterful control of the zone. Along with his overall strong 2009 campaign, he posted a 15.8 BB%. Darnell has 3rd-base tools, but he is inconsistent defensively and may change positions. He has enough bat, arm, speed, and athleticism to make a fine corner outfielder. While Darnell's bat may be a bit less thunderous than Smoak, his all-around value should make him a strong contributor for the Padres.

Donavan Tate, of

Age: 19 Level: none-Low A

Tate received a whopping $6.25 million signing bonus as the 3rd overall draft pick in 2009. A premium athlete who had committed to North Carolina for baseball and football, he has outstanding upside. Tate has the range, actions, and arm to be a special defender in center. At 6-3, 200, he also has raw power and lightning bat speed. Tate needs much more polish offensively, however. He has mechanical kinks to work out and his feel for hitting leaves something to be desired. He's 4 or more years away from the majors and his bat will need improvement to even get him that far. Tate has an Andruw Jones-type ceiling, but he has a long road ahead of him. His strong makeup will aid him in all phases of his development.

Logan Forsythe, 3B

Age: 22 Level: Double-A-Triple-A

Forsythe, a 2008 supplemental-rounder from Arkansas, has started his career off well and stayed one level ahead of Darnell. Forsythe is an extremely patient hitter with a quick, sound swing. He hit a composite .300/.429/.440 with a 17.1 BB% between High A and Double-A in 2009. Forsythe has moved around a lot defensively but can handle the hot corner ably. He also has great makeup. The primary concern with the 6-1, 206-pounder is his power. Forsythe mustered just a .098 IsoP and 3 home runs in Double-A and his approach lends itself to underwhelming power numbers. He strikes out at a pretty high clip as well. A textbook Padres prospect, Forsythe projects as a steady #2 hitter, but it's crucial that he boosts his power production.

Simon Castro, rhp

Age: 21 Level: Low A-Double-A

Castro's 2009 campaign was everything San Diego was looking for and more. Regarded as an erratic, live-armed lottery ticket previously, Castro parlayed his raw ability into a 2.80 FIP and 27.4 K%. The force behind his great gains was improved control, as Castro posted a 6.4 BB% for Low A Fort Wayne. Castro works with a 92-93 mph fastball that touches the mid-90s with life. His hard breaking ball is a quality secondary offering. Castro's durable 6-5 build suits a starting role well, but his changeup needs much more work to stick in that role. He could stand to use his offspeed pitches more. Castro needs to maintain his progress, consistency, and smooth out some rough edges, but his upside is a #2 starter.

Keyvius Sampson, rhp

Age: 19 Level: none-Low A

Sampson's athletic frame and power arm attracted lots of attention in '09 and he wound up going in the 4th round of the draft. The Ocala, Florida, native garnered an above-slot signing bonus of $600,000. Sampson has touched mid-90s and sits in the low-90s. He has a power breaking ball and decent control at present. The 6-0, 185-pounder needs to refine his changeup and command (as most prep products do). For better or for worse, his package draws Edwin Jackson comparisons. Having overcome a tragic high school career, Sampson will get his pro career ramped up in 2010, presumably in Low A.

Wynn Pelzer, rhp

Age: 23 Level: High A

I have to fight my stubbornness to rank Pelzer this high. He has always seemed to me to be inconsistent, not as good as the scouting reports suggest, and a future reliever. Still, his upside is becoming too great to ignore and he deserves a slot here. Pelzer's explosive low-90s fastball has been clocked at 97 mph. He spins a good, hard slider and has employed both a splitter and a changeup as his third pitch. The 6-1, 205-pounder posted a 3.30 FIP in 150 IP in 2009. He needs to improve his control (9.3 BB%), but misses bats (23.1 K%) and gets ground balls. Pelzer, a 2007 9th-rounder from South Carolina, will turn 24 in June, so San Diego could be tempted to fast-track him to the major league bullpen. His max-effort windup and difficulty to fine-tune a third pitch also point to the 'pen. He'll start the season in the Double-A rotation and merits close attention.

Aaron Poreda, lhp

Age: 23 Level: MLB

Poreda was a 2007 1st-round pick and former top prospect for the White Sox. He was a major chip in the Jake Peavy trading deadline deal last year. The 6-6 lefty flashes huge upside but has struggled with command and projects as a power reliever in the Matt Thornton mold. Poreda's fastball parks in the low- to mid-90s and has touched triple digits. He has solid control of the pitch. The San Francisco product has a decent slider and a below-average changeup. He has also recently incorporated a 2-seamer. I attribute some of Poreda's detoriorating stuff and command woes to his unstable role (he pitched in the rotation, bullpen, and for 5 teams in 2009), but he won't be a frontline starter by any means. I'm not a fan of Poreda's delivery, but I do think he'll rebound and be an asset in a bullpen role.

Everett Williams, of

Age: 19 Level: none-Low A

A 2009 2nd-rounder from a Texas high school, Williams is touted for his athleticism and ability to hit. I'm willing to wait for some pro data before heaping praise on him. Williams packs bat speed and strength in his lefty stroke. He's also an above-average runner with decent defensive skills. Williams needs more repetitions, though; he has shown some struggles to hit breaking balls and his plate discipline is a question mark. His compact (5-10, 205) frame is unorthodox for his profile. Williams could man a corner spot in deference to Donavan Tate if they suit up at the same level this year.

Cory Luebke, lhp

Age: 24 Level: Double-A-MLB

Luebke took a step forward this past season after struggling in 2008. The 2007 draftee reached Double-A and posted a 2.98 FIP. Luebke isn't overpowering, but can hump it up to 94 mph with a nice slider to back it up. The Ohio State product generally throws strikes. On the downside, I don't like Luebke's delivery and arm action. His changeup also needs more separation from his fastball. Luebke was less effective after his promotion from High A. At 6-4, 215, he has a prototypical pitcher's frame and still projects as a #3 or #4 starter. Soon to be 25, Luebke could reach the big leagues by the end of the year.

Others: SSs Lance Zawadzki and Drew Cumberland; 2B Eric Sogard; 3B Edinson Rincon; OF Blake Tekotte

Impact Talent: C+

Farm System Depth: B

2010 Breakout Prospect

Jerry Sullivan, rhp

Age: 21 Level: Short-Season-High A

Sullivan has a legitimate shot to break into San Diego's top 10 prospects next year. A 3rd-round pick in 2009 who was a stalwart at Oral Roberts for 3 seasons, Sullivan offers a combination of current production and future projection. The 6-4, 220-pounder has a plus fastball in the low-90s. His secondary offerings (slider, changeup) are inconsistent, but they flash the potential to be average or better. Sullivan uncharacteristically racked up walks in his pro debut, but look for him to settle in as a dependable #3 starter. He'll raise his profile with a strong campaign in 2010.

State of the System: St. Louis Cardinals

2010-01-03T15:18:00.005-06:00

Quick Look

The Cardinals' top few prospects are respectable. Their minor league system after that is barren. They can obviously take solace in the fact that their major league team is in solid shape, but their inventory of prospects is among the worst in the game. Playing in a wide-open division, St. Louis will continue to rely on Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter, and Adam Wainwright, while Colby Rasmus will be a difference-maker in the near future. By the way, anyone interested in the Cardinals who hasn't checked out Future Redbirds or Play a Hard Nine should do that ASAP; they're very informative sites.

Top Prospects

Shelby Miller, rhp

Age: 19 Level: none-Low A

Miller, the 19th selection in the most recent draft, has the best fastball and highest upside of any Cardinals prospect. Miller's heater sits at 92-93 mph and touches 97 mph. The pitch has plus sink. A Texas native, Miller has a strong, 6-3, 195-pound frame that bodes well for his durability. His curveball flashes plus potential and his changeup has shown improvement. Scouts say his command needs work, and he could further refine his secondary offerings. St. Louis gave him a brief cameo in the Midwest League last year to get his feet wet in his future home for this season. If Miller goes there and shows he can harness his exciting stuff, he will be an elite pitching prospect.

Jaime Garcia, lhp

Age: 23 Level: MLB

Garcia got in just 38 IP during 2009 while he returned from Tommy John surgery. Nearly fully recovered now, he's a viable 2010 rotation candidate. Garcia's best pitch is a devastating curveball. His fastball usually clocks in at about 90-92 mph. He could stand to sharpen a third pitch and hone his command, but the Texas native has shown the ability to rack up Ks and groundballs with his top two pitches. Though some have qualms with his delivery, he projects as a mid-rotation starter.

Daryl Jones, of

Age: 22 Level: Double-A-Triple-A

A raw athlete coming out of high school, Jones struggled for a few seasons until breaking out in 2008, going .316/.407/.483 between two levels. Jones has excellent athleticism and plus speed. He has developed solid plate discipline and greatly improved his feel for hitting. The presence of Colby Rasmus and Jones's below-average throwing arm make him a probable corner outfielder in the future. His modest power (.117 IsoP) fuels questions surrounding his ultimate worth at an offensively-demanding position. To his credit, Jones has made progress offensively and may just be scratching the surface of his potential. He's ready for Triple-A and nearing the majors, but Jones's future with the Cardinals seems unclear.

Lance Lynn, rhp

Age: 22 Level: Double-A-MLB

Lynn fits the Cardinals' mold of a steady, dependable college hurler. A former Ole Miss standout who went in the supplemental round of the 2008 draft, he had a strong 2009 campaign primarily in Double-A (149 IP, 3.20 FIP, 47.0 GB%). Lynn throws a low-90s fastball with sink along with a slider, curveball, and changeup. He doesn't overwhelm (19.9 K%) and needs to develop one of his secondary pitches into a plus pitch, but he should be a mid-rotation workhorse. At 6-5, 250, Lynn has the durable frame to shoulder a lot of innings.

David Freese, 3B

Age: 26 Level: MLB

Since coming over from the Padres for Jim Edmonds, Freese has developed into a legitimate big league option. The 6-2, 220-pounder has a track record of hitting, with a .308/.384/.532 career line. He has been a power hitter in the minors, but some doubt whether his pop will play in the m

ajors. Freese does not control the strike zone well either. He's dealt with injuries, but shown capable defensive skills when healthy. Freese will compete for a job in Spring Training. Approaching 27, he'll have to seize his opportunity now, but Freese has the ability to be a productive starting 3rd baseman.

Allen Craig, 3B/OF/1B

Age: 25 Level: Triple-A-MLB

An underrated prospect with a potent bat, Craig has pounded minor league pitching to the tune of .306/.366/.513 (.390 wOBA) over 4 seasons. He generates consistent righthanded power and makes solid contact, though he doesn't walk nearly enough. In his career Craig has played every corner position and shortstop, but his sub-par speed, arm, and range mean he offers little in the way of defense. With nothing left to prove in the minors, Craig could hit his way into the Cardinals' plans or be used as trade bait.

Daniel Descalso, 2B

Age: 23 Level: Triple-A-MLB

Descalso, an untouted 2007 3rd-rounder out of UC Davis, enjoyed a breakout 2009 season, hitting .299/.373/.459 while reaching Triple-A. He shows the skills to be an everyday regular at 2nd base. The lefty employs a quick, line-drive-oriented stroke to hit for contact and pepper the gaps. He doesn't strike out often. Descalso has good instincts and gets the job done defensively. His average speed and range mean he probably won't be more than a fill-in elsewhere. With Double-A being the only stop at which he posted more than a .130 IsoP, the 5-10 Descalso lacks power. He could draw some more walks as well. His offense dried when he reached Triple-A this year. Descalso will return there in 2010 in hopes of keeping pitchers honest while maintaining his contact skills.

Eduardo Sanchez, rhp

Age: 20 Level: Double-A-MLB

Sanchez's slight build belies his electric stuff. The Venezuelan relief ace has a fastball that he dials up to 97 mph and a sharp breaking ball that gets swings and misses. Sanchez's BABIP and FIP suggest somewhat of a regression next year, but aren't overly troublesome. On the positive side, he shows favorable groundball tendencies. His control and command definitely need fine-tuning, but Sanchez is close to making an impact in the St. Louis bullpen.

Robert Stock, c

Age: 20 Level: Rookie-Low A

Stock skipped his senior year of high school to enroll at USC. He failed to meet sky-high expectations during his three years as the Trojans' catcher, but Stock still went in 2nd round in 2009. Offensively, Stock has projectable power and the ability to be an asset for a catcher. His worrisome mechanics and inconsistency making contact often sabotage him, though. (Proponents note that he was young in college and had a solid pro debut.) Stock's defense can get out of whack, but he has a cannon arm and the tools to be a plus defender. (He threw in the low-90s as a pitcher in college, and I actually like him more in that role.) Far along for his age, Stock will head to Low A in 2010 looking to justify his $525,000 signing bonus and the hype he received as an amateur.

Blake Hawksworth, rhp

Age: 26 Level: MLB

Hawksworth is an erstwhile top prospect whose career was sidetracked by injuries and ineffectiveness. To his credit, he has battled back and reached St. Louis as a reliever. (He threw 40 quality innings in 2009 and is barely eligible for this list.) Hawksworth may not be ticketed for stardom like he seemed to be 5 or 6 years ago, but the 6-3, 195-pounder works in the low-90s and still gets outs with his money changeup. He sometimes struggles with command and needs to establish his fastball better. Hawksworth will play the upcoming season at age 27 and is maxed out. He figures to be a decent bullpen guy.

Others: RHP P.J. Walters; SSs Pete Kozma and Tyler Greene; OFs Tyler Henley, Jon Jay, and Kyle Conley; C/1B/OF Steve Hill; 1B Mark Hamilton; C Bryan Anderson

Impact Talent: D+

Farm System Depth: D+

2010 Breakout Prospect

Adam Reifer, rhp

Age: 23 Level: High A-Triple-A

Reifer has high-octane stuff but hasn't turned the corner yet; when he does, he'll zoom to the Cardinals' bullpen. The UC Riverside product works in the mid-90s and peaks at 99 mph with his fastball, and his power slider is at least a plus pitch when it's working. He occasionally even breaks out a decent changeup. His pure arm and aggressive mentality suit a closer, but his control (10.6 BB%) needs major work. Reifer also gets hit more than one would expect (mainly because he leaves too many pitches over the plate). With that said, his 3.53 FIP this year is much more encouraging than his 4.47 ERA. Reifer could explode if he finally harnesses his stuff.

Daryl Jones walk-off home run ball from 2007